Tag Archives: won
How to Raise Your Fortune in Cheltenham Betting
Theres more to witness than jockeys and horses during Cheltenham Festival. Comprehensive odds and form guides are a few details each punter considers when participating in Cheltenham betting.
Online bookies may have difficulty in getting a good start. Heres a few point to remember in order to ascertain chances of winning.
Hitting that jackpot can be very easy if you have access to everything you need before placing your bet. As for Supreme Novices Hurdle, it is recommended that you focus more on trends of the last ten winners of the race. Center your bet on five and six year old horses as they have won eight of the last ten races. For champion hurdle, you have to consider horses that can run and jump at a significant speed. During the past few years of Cheltenham Festival, there were three horses older than eight years old that have won in this race. In this specific race, records show that horses age six to nine can be eyed as potential winners.
If you are looking for a horse to place your bet on in Queen Mother Chase, you might want to consider a horse with experience. Horses age nine and older and of course with impressive endurance might just work for your calculated win. For Stayers World Hurdle, there was no single horse that had won in three consecutive years. So, it is also critical for each punter to check the trends and statics of the runners. A lot of sites can provide trends from previous winners than can help them place their bets on the right horse.
By taking advantage on those large free bets you are giving yourself an edge. Simply open an account with an online bookmaker and you can take away that free bet. Among those bookmakers that offer best free bets are bet365 for £200, Paddy Power and Boylesports for £100, Extrabet for £125, Betfred and Sportingbet for £50 and WBX for £60. You can handpick your bookmaker and make the most out of your money.
One of Cheltenham Betting tips most punters consider is paying close attention to horses who have won or at least performed well during past Cheltenham Festivals. As most analysts say, history has repeated itself at Cheltenham. There were a good number of horses that have placed and won in more than one festival.
Betting can be frustrating without numbers and trends to look at. Among championship winners, one strong trend are those winning horses age seven to 9. Considering the age of the horse is as critical as placing your bet.
Spectators will have to run their fingers over the age and winnings of the horse they fancy. Cheltenham is more than just placing your bet. You have to make a good analysis of what you are getting into. Check all the resources like betting sites and previews for you to acquire knowledge on Cheltenham betting. Most of all, be wise in choosing your bookmaker. Determine the best betting company that can offer value to your money.
Free Betting Advice – Horse Racing System Statistics – Odds On Horses
Horse racing systems are regularly based on research and statistics. Without them, making a horse racing system would be a lot more complex. I use a lot of programs and Internet resources for my own research, but this can be very expensive and run into hundreds each month. So in order to present you a bit of a helping hand I have listed a number of valuable statistics beneath:
+Odds On Horses+
The vast majority of people seem to think odds on horses are unbeatable or bad value. Neither is true, they get beaten pretty often, and as for value if you get a Pattern winning horse running in a Seller at 1/5, that is potentially decent value.
A quick statistic now:
58% of odds on horses win their races on the flat.
54% win on the AW (All Weather). That 4% difference makes quite a difference, so pay closer attention to short-priced racehorses on this surface.
Splitting all flat races into race type with the percenatge of winning odds on runners:
4+ & all age H/c’s – 48%
Specific age H/c’s – 53%
Claimers – 56%
2yo Sellers – 56%
3yo Seller – 60%
Other Sellers – 56%
3yo & all age Maidens – 59%
2yo Maidens – 61%
2yo condition races – 62%
3yo & all age cnds races – 57%
All the above based on statistics over 5 years.
This will confidently give you a little help in pointing out likely odds on winners.
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+5f Sprint Favourites +
In reply to a query I was sent with regard to how many odds on favourites win 5f sprints:
Over the last 16 years,
Handicap – 23% – 924/3960 – & 65533;376.62 Loss
Claimer/Auction – 35% – 420/1208 – & 65533;89.98 Loss
Non-Handicap – 35% – 779/220 – & 65533;233.10 Loss
Group or Maiden – 38% – 878/2310 – & 65533;175.09 Loss
Sprints are not really good for odds on runners, you ought to be looking at them in 1 mile and upwards races. Also using the betting exchanges will offer better prices on some, but in a number ofcases once you deduct the commission you can have a lower price than the bookies offer.
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+Winners last time out – Flat+
Just some quick basic stats for the flat from 10 years of statistics:
Last time out winners win 17.45% next time out
Horses that won there last 2 races win 21.52% next time out
Winners of there last 3 win 24.81%
Last 4 win 26.25%
Last 5 win 29.17%
Last 6 win 38.24
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+Winners last time out – National Hunt+
Source – 10 years all NH races run under rules. Chances of horse winning next time out:
Last time out winner – 23.61%
Won last 2 – 29%
Won last 3 – 33.89%
Won last 4 – 37.65%
Won last 5 – 39.64%
Won last 6 – 38.53%
Compared to the flat, sequence winners over jumps have a much bigger probability of winning again.
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+Nursery Topweights+
A Nursery is a Handicap race for 2 year olds.
I read a comment in the RFO (Racing and Football Outlook newspaper) from one of their ‘tipsters’, that ‘top weight’s in Nurseries are always worth a second look.
Now me being what I am, I wanted to test this wonderful theory, as this is how we learn, so I ran it through my software.
As normal with this type of media information it is shot down in flames.
Over the last 16 years:
Qualifiers: 2459
Winners: 359
Strike-rate: 14.56%
Loss: -& 65533;461
Average loss per year: -& 65533;28
Only 1996 showed a profit of & 65533;36, apparently a coincidence.
Not very good is it? Obviously it’s the media giving the typical punter the normal worthless myths.
Remember, when you hear media remarks such as ‘horses for courses’, ‘always back the outsider of 3’, etc, the opposite is commonly true.
These stats ought to help you develop your method betting, and go towards making a horse racing system.