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Expectation Value (EV) Calculation (Page 1 of 4)
Any action you make in poker game should be focused on making a profit. Your efforts are worthwhile if they lead to the maximum profit possible or have the best average profit value. The average value of a possible profit is also named Expectation Value (EV).
Sometimes there are situations when you have several possible ways to play the hand. The profit of each variant = ev1, ev2,…,evN, the possibility of each variant = p1, p2,…, pN accordingly. Then the expectation value of the profit in the given situation is calculated by the formula:
EV = ev1*p1 + ev2*S2 + … + evN*SN (*)
The following is a very complicated example, but it has great practical value and touches on all the basic moments and rules of calculation. Let us assume that you have AK and raised on the preflop. The contender re-raised. Both stacks are 100BB. What is your best move? Should you call his re-raise, fold or re-raise (4bet)?
To answer these questions you need to calculate the EV of the call and the re-raise. The EV of the fold, obviously, is zero.
It is necessary to note that the EV of an action is the difference of our stack between the end and the beginning of an action, but not at the beginning of a hand. You cant get the money you have just invested in the pot.
When you call:
Let us set a task first:
The opponent made 3bet of your raise (raise=5??, 3bet=15??). You need to determine the possibility of your opponent having certain hands.
Let us divide the range of 3bet into two groups
The first group: he will play 3bet every time; these are QQ+ and ??.
The second group: he will play 3bet less than 100% of the time.
JJ: 70%. It means that he will re-raise with JJ 70% of the time, and will not make any further play.
AQ, ??: 30% (no more for small limits)
AJ, QK: 20%
1)?? and ?? have three combinations each, QQ-6, ??- 9, total 18
2)JJ – 6
3)AQ – 12, ?? – 6, total 18
4)AJ, KQ – 12 each, total 24
The total number of hands the opponent may re-raise with
13+6*0.7+18*0.3+24*0.2 = 32,4
The possibility the opponent has ??:
?(??) = 3/32.4 = 0.09.
The possibility of other hands:
?(??) = ?(??) = 0.09.
?(QQ) = 6/32.4 = 0.19
P(AK) = 9/32.4 = 0.28
P(JJ) = 0.7*6/32.4 = 0.13
P(AQ) = 12*0.3/32.4 = 0.11
P(TT) = 6*0.3/32.4 = 0.06
P(AJ) = P(KQ) = 12*0.2/32.4 = 0.07
Lets calculate the EV of various possibilities:
AA:
If you have K and/or A on the flop you should play with your entire stack.
The flop with a king and/or an ace may happen 23% of the time.
You may calculate this in the following way: one ace and three kings are left in the pack, four cards. To calculate the required probability, lets calculate the probability of the opposite situation – there will be neither an ace nor a king on flop.
Baccarat Top Online Gambling Card Games
Online casinos offer you a mind-boggling variety of online gambling options. One of the leading online casino games is baccarat. Baccarat owes its origins to Europe and is quickly becoming one of the most popular online casino games on the circuit. The main reason behind the popularity of baccarat is that it is easy to learn and fun to play. Add to it the high payouts that you can win and you have a heady cocktail in your hands.
Online baccarat is played with six decks. There are two hands dealt. One is for the player and the other for the banker. The dealing of cards will be two cards each to the player and banker. The aim of online baccarat is to guess which hand among the two will have a higher score. The important rule to be kept in mind in connection to this is that the highest score in online baccarat cannot exceed 9 or be negative.
While playing online baccarat, you can bet either on the player, the dealer, on a Tie or a combination of all of the above. The last option enables you to minimize your losses when you cannot get a clear picture of which way the game is proceeding. When you think that neither the player nor the dealer can reach the figure of 9, you bet on Tie. The player gets to draw first and there is a reshuffling of cards after dealing out each hand. The player gets to draw a third card if the players total is between 0 and 5 and the bankers total is between 0 and 7. That is not the case if the bankers total exceeds 7 or the players total goes above 5. Now the banker gets to draw the card. If the bankers total is already between 7 and 9, then they cannot draw another card. But if the total of the first two cards happen to be 0, 1 or 2, he can draw another card.
Now for the rules that determine whether you win or not. In online baccarat, you win if you can guess which hand, the players or the bankers, will have the higher score. If you think both of them will have the same total, you can bet on a Tie. For example, if you bet either on the player or the banker with $5, and you guess correctly, you win your money back along with an additional $4.75. 5% is subtracted from your winning sum. If your bet has been on a Tie, in which the odds are a lot higher and hence the risk, if you win, you get back your $5, along with nine times the value of your bet, which in this case will be $45.
But your guess can go off the track as well. In online baccarat, you lose if you bet on the player and the bankers hand has the higher score. If the player and the banker have unequal hands in terms of score and you have bet on a Tie, you stand to lose as well. The wager is a push if you have bet on the player or the banker and they have equal scores, that is, a Tie. To place your bets, click on which option you want to bet on: player, banker or Tie. Then you click on the betting chips on the lower right hand corner of your screen. They get added to your betting amount. If you want to reduce the betting amount that you have already selected, click on the chip and the return to the lower right hand corner.
Playing Baccarat is easy and convenient. Jump on this fun yet exciting ride and take back the thrills and win real pots of money!