Tag Archives: three
Horse Race Handicapping: Dutching
Dutching is the professional handicapper’s equivalent to portfolio diversification. One of the greatest mistakes an investor can make is not properly diversifying his or her portfolio. Adequate diversification will include an increased number of investments, allowing those with upward price movements to offset those with downward price movements.
In handicapping, dutching allows a bettor to wager on two or more runners, at different odds, in the same race. The bets are made in proportion to each horse’s chances of winning, so that no matter which runner prevails, the payoff will be the same. Since dutching allows us to bet on three or four runners, obviously we have a better chance of cashing Xtra Winners. However; even when we win while dutching, we will always have some losing tickets with this method.
Here is how it works: Assume that through applying a long-shot angle, you have eliminated the non-contenders and are left with three horses. You are confident that one of the three will be victorious but have no particular bias toward any of them. By placing a varying win bet on each of the three horses, the dollar amounts being dictated by the odds, you will realize a profit no matter which of the three wins. In addition, the profit will be approximately the same for each outcome, and you can predetermine it.
So, how do we know how much to wager on each horse in order to guarantee a profit? First, we need to convert the horses’ current odds into a percentage. This tell us what the market or pool says the real-time percentage chance each horse has of winning the race. The math for this is simple, but, in the interest of brevity, I am going to omit it here. It is covered in detail in my book, Handicapping the Wall Street Way: Picking Xtra Winners at the Track.
Just print the following chart:
ODDS ODDS AMT. BET PAYOFF
Pisces Pleasure 3-1 25 $25.00 $100.00
Nostalgic Moment 4-1 20 $20.00 $100.00
Trubble 9-1 10 $10.00 $100.00
With a total outlay of fifty-five dollars, we would expect a profit of forty-five dollars whether Pisces Pleasure, Nostalgic Moment, or Trubble won. For this example, I assigned a unit value of one dollar to each percentage point. Although the value assigned is entirely at each individual handicapper’s discretion, it MUST be the same for each horse.
As with the stock market, there is a certain degree of volatility in the betting pool. It is not at all uncommon to see sizable fluctuations in the odds, especially at smaller tracks. To negate these fluctuations, one should endeavor to wait until the last possible second to place his or her wagers.
How To Win Lotto: The Most Effective Way To Pick Your Winning Numbers (Page 1 of 2)
How To Win Lotto: The Most Effective Way To Pick Your Winning Numbers
Mark Collard
When you consider the potential multi-million dollar fortunes on offer, picking your lotto numbers can seem like a complicated and stressful affair. Nothing could be more rewarding than cashing in a one- or two-dollar lottery ticket for a million-dollar jackpot.
You only have to scan the daily tabloids or internet search engine listings to know that everyone and their dog possesses some unique method of busting the odds or predicting the winning numbers of any lottery in the world.
In spite of the enormous odds, and regardless of the type of prize you are seeking to win, you can always depend on three universal principles* or laws every time you play lotto anywhere, anytime. The most important of the three ‘laws’ is this…
Lottery Numbers Are Totally Random
Lotto is a game of chance based on a random selection of numbers. It is not possible to consistently and reliably predict a random event. Full stop. End of story. Grasp this concept, and you are well on your way to lotto success.
Consequently, do not concern yourself with coupon patterns, hot numbers, frequency statistics or other implausible good luck charms. Although interesting, these systems have absolutely no bearing on your ability to predict the winning numbers, nor your chances of winning a prize. A random selection of numbers can not, by definition, form a pattern.
I am yet to see any computer system or software package that can reliably and consistently predict the winning numbers of any lottery in the world. It just cant be done, nor will it ever be possible. To this end, any product that claims to analyze patterns in actual lottery results or help you predict the winning numbers of your favorite lottery is a scam. If you just heard yourself say “No theyre not,” dont bother reading on youre fooling yourself, and I dont want to waste your time any further.
By all means, go ahead and have fun using these products to choose your weekly numbers. Just never bet your house on them.
So, what IS the most effective way to pick your winning numbers?
The answer is simple. Anyway you choose.
Your choice of selections has absolutely no bearing on the numbers which will be drawn this week, or any week for that matter. To suggest otherwise is to appear gullible and stupid.
If you want to know, I always choose my numbers randomly (it’s a function of the winlottosystems wheeling software I use) because it’s easy, and I don’t have to think.
Never Change Your Numbers?
This advice is dispensed about as frequently as a new system for picking this week’s lucky numbers is announced.
But seriously, should you change your numbers, or stick with the same numbers all the time (in case they are drawn)? It’s a good question, and one that vexes more lotto players than they care to admit.