Tag Archives: soccer
Bookmakers Soccer Predictions: 2008 vs 2009
Bookmakers use their own soccer prediction models. Their odds are usually calculated in a way that minimizes the payoffs for match favorites. The accuracy of these predictions can be analyzed by comparing between the betting odds and the real outcome of soccer matches.
This article compares between the accuracy of the soccer predictions made by bookmakers during 2008/09 and the first half of 2009/10. The comparison is based on the average betting odds from the top European soccer leagues.
DATA AND METHODSTo compare the accuracy of the bookmakers’ predictions, the authors of this article analyzed the match outcomes and average betting odds of the following 10 major European soccer leagues: Austrian Bundesliga, English Premier League, Dutch Eredivisie, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga 1, Greek Ethniki, Italian Serie A, Scottish Premier League, Spanish Primera Division and Turkish Super Lig.
The outcome of a match was estimated on the basis of the average payoff offered by the bookmakers for that match. The possible profit of a bettor who bets on bookies’ favorites was calculated according to the average betting odds.
SUMMARYThe conclusion was that the bookmakers successfully predicted the outcome of more than 54% of matches during the seasons 2008/09 and 2009/10. Thus, the average accuracy of bookmakers& 8217; soccer predictions is relatively high in the case of major European leagues. Nonetheless, the low profits make these predictions highly unprofitable as betting tips.
1×2 betting: — Losses of -4% and -2% respectively were estimated for bettors, who used fixed odds as betting tips.
— The only profitable league during those two seasons was Austrian Bundesliga (+14% and +6% of profit) with more than 60% of correct match predictions.
— The most unprofitable leagues were Scottish Premier (-22% and -6%) and German Bundesliga (-11% and -6%).
— The most drastic improvement in 1×2 betting profits was observed for the Dutch Eredivisie league where the profit changed from -11% to +8%.
— The most drastic degradation in 1×2 betting profits was observed for the Turkish Super Lig league where the profit changed from +4% to -18%.
Total under/over bets are the most unprofitable: — Total under/over 2.5 losses were nearly the same during both seasons and equal to 10%.
The conclusion is that using bookmakers& 8217; soccer predictions as betting tips does not pay off in daily betting. Though the accuracy of their predictions is high, their odds do not result in betting profits.
Understanding Betting Soccer Odds
Soccer betting has overtaken horse race betting in the UK as the primary source of income for bookmakers. Today, football has become well-loved by most people that not only bookmakers are making money out of it. Even regular soccer fanatics make their game-watching a lucrative experience by engaging on bets.
However, not all bets can come as lucky as you expect it to be. Bets always come in a win or lose situation, depending on where and how you place your wagers. Therefore, understanding betting soccer odds is a must before you engage in betting. If you are an amateur, understanding betting soccer odds is greatly essential to ensure not luck but skills in your betting endeavors.
Understanding betting soccer odds can become a great ordeal if you are not a seasoned football fanatic. One must love football first before understanding betting soccer odds. The rules of the game, the team, the players, and everything else that involves football in it are essential things that you should know before understanding betting soccer odds.
While much of the percentage in understanding betting soccer odds goes to skills, luck can also account to the likelihood of winning. There are rainy days in betting which you should take as part of understanding betting soccer odds. At times you can be winners and losers too. Understanding betting soccer odds means considering losing as a part of every game. All you can do is lessen the risks of failing so you can have higher chances of a winning wager.
The Team To Choose
Part of understanding betting soccer odds would be choosing which team to bet upon. Of course, your highest bids can go to the bigger and better teams in football. But because there are always two in a match, you have to rely on several factors first before choosing a team.
Understanding betting soccer odds means looking over the team’s profile. Recent injuries from the best football players could be a cue. Successive winners also make a good choice. Although factors are important, understanding betting soccer odds through hunches may serve you luck as well. It is important to keep in mind that understanding betting soccer odds is not only about factual aspects but can rely on intuitions as well.
The Type Of Bet
Understanding betting soccer odds means knowing which type of bet to invest your money to. Since there are several selections in every game, you have to choose which type of bet could provide the leverage you need.
Understanding betting soccer odds also depends on the bookmaker. You have to find credible bookmakers so you lessen the risks of losing money. Betting online or offline can also take part in understanding betting soccer odds. Most of the choices rely on you and your expertise in the betting field.
Skills And Luck
Skills matter in understanding betting soccer odds. Of course, you have higher chances of winning if you know where and how to wager your money. Luck may also be a factor in understanding betting soccer odds. If you do not feel like you’re going to win, you can let a game pass and bet next time. But if you have this gut feeling of winning, you can carefully place your bets and wait for your fluky chance.