Tag Archives: race
Free Horse Racing System: Distance Changes that Produce Big Longshot Winners!
Gamblers and horse racing players are always furiously searching the Daily Racing Form and the Internet for that one piece of data that would be the Holy Grail of horse betting and magically transform them from losers to winners.
Unfortunately, it doesn’t work that way. There are many variables in each and every race that make such an idea out-of-reach. There are however, some tried and true handicapping angles that can put a lot of money in your pocket when you catch them.
No matter what, horse racing is horse racing, and there are some fundamentals that will never change. Trainers, owners, jockeys and many good handicappers know this and use it to their advantage. Here’s one powerful horse racing system you can use in Thoroughbred racing is distance changes.
Just because a horse is entered in a six furlong race today means he’s out to win. Many times this race is a prep for the next race at either a longer or shorter distance. So it always pays to ask, “can this horse win at this distance?”
Well, here are some sneaky horse racing distance changes that trainers pull off to put over big longshots. This leaves many uninformed players scratching their heads – while other astute horse racing handicappers are lining their pockets with cash – lots of cash!
Here are a few distance switches you should look for. Give extra consideration for horses changing distances from:
1.) 6 – 6.5 furlongs to a 1 Mile or 1 Mile 1/16th race
2.) 1 Mile race 1 Mile 1/16th race to a 6 – 6.5 furlong race
3.) 5 – 5.5 furlongs to a 1 Mile race (this is very powerful!)
4.) 1 Mile race to a 5 – 5.5 furlong race
5.) 2 – 6 furlong races to a Route Grass Race
6.) For Maidens: 2 – 6 or 6.5 furlong races to a 1 mile 1/16 or 1 mile 1/8 race (super powerful if combined with a drop in class!)
7.) 7 furlongs to 1 mile 1/16
8.) 1 mile 1/16 to 7 furlongs
Well there you have some super-potent trainer distance changes that can produce very big-priced horse racing longshots. Another thing to always look for a horse that is a big favorite doing one of these distance changes – and there is another horse in the race doing the same distance switch but overlooked in the wagering.
What Percentage Of Races Does The Favorite Horse Win?
As a general rule, the favorite will win about 1/3 of the time, but what is amazing is how often the favorite will place, especially when less than half of the field is 5-1 or lower. In this case a favorite will place almost 100% of the time.
In order to win a horse race, you might want to predict the winner by using statistical calculations instead. In a race with 20 runners you have a 1 in 20 chance of picking the winner. However, let us say that the race has just six runners, then you have a 1 in 6 chance of winning. Thus, you can see that the fewer the runners there are, the better your chances of winning. Therefore, it is statistically speaking, a bad race to bet on. The key point: is stay away from horse races where there are lots of runners!
In a race with only six horses running, you have a 1 in 6 chance of picking a winner. However, bookmakers/tracks usually only offer poor odds if you bet place or show on such a horse. Of course, if you placed a win bet and the horse does win, then you will come away with lots of money. You really need odds of at least 4/1 to win anything if the horse that you bet on places second or third. Of course, this is providing that you placed a place or show bet. If the odds are less than 4/1, then I suggest passing such a horse race.
In my opinion, the secret of winning on the horses is to look at the statistics. I suggest that you choose horse races with nine runners and 1/4 odds on the first three, or six runners with 1/4 odds on the first two. Thus, I suggest that you limit yourself to horse races with either 6 or 9 horses running to have the best chance of winning.
Thus, the question asked is if you should bet on the horse most likely to win? Sometimes the answer to this is “no”. Often the odds on the horse most likely to win is poor. Remember, when you use this system, you are making your predictions on the odds. Thus, place your bet around 20 minutes to race time.
If the horses just below the favorite have better odds, such as 4/1, 5/1 or better; then place your bet on those horses. Remember, that your horse only has to come in the first three in a six or nine horse race for you to come away with a profit. And do not forget, the horse still has a chance of winning too. For this reason, I do not always place my money on the horse that is predicted to win. Look at the odds being offered and if they are better on the second or third horse, then go for it.
As one can see, it often is better to bet on a horse you think is going to place. The reason being that the odds are often better than the favorite winning the race.
Why does the horse predicted to place actually wins so many races? Maybe because the favorite usually only wins 1 in 3 races. In 2 out of 3 races some other horse wins.