Tag Archives: probability

How To Pick The Winning Numbers In Lottery And In Gambling (Page 1 of 2)

Gambling can be a lot of fun, but it isn’t when you are always on the losing. But you can make serious money in betting. Contrary to the belief that the winning in lotteries and gambling is pure chance and luck, adding in mathematics and some proven game strategies can help you in picking the winning numbers in betting.

General Tips. Gambling, as they say, is a science. To win, you cannot rely on pure luck and a come-what-may attitude. You need to think, calculate, predict. And you need to put good affords.

There are numbers behind every game. A person who predicts the outcome of a game with a mathematical guess gives him an advantage. There is a mathematical theory and science behind gambling at casinos. There is always a strategy on winning the game.

In gambling, there is a big difference between relying on luck alone and controlling the game. To gain the advantage over the opponent, a feedback control system must be used. Feedback means monitoring the game in front of you but taking mental

Lottery is an extreme form of gambling. Hence, it is difficult to cheat or guess the outcome in this game. While predicting the outcome in a lottery is beyond our capabilities as human beings, such may actually be easy for a home computer to process.

All the gambling events are totally random in nature. There is no relation, correlation or any type of mathematical formulas connected and totally chaotic and you cannot predict the next event in the lottery however expert you are in the statistical analytical mathematics or astrology, tarot readings, numerology or by any sort of fortune telling methods. There is no fun playing in gambling by picking numbers at random or by selecting as lucky nos. as all the nos. will have equal probability of occurrence irrespective of lucky or unlucky.. . For incorporating any system in probability theory, the population or the data selected, must have a trend and conditional format and not merely of random in occurrence. The figures of sales, inventory, population growth etc. have trends. The mostly used systems are Linear regression method and Monte Carlo simulation procedures but these methods require large data of past events and cumbersome in working out In my quest to find a suitable method in forecasting a winning number as of a lottery, with high degree of accuracy and after many years of testing of various statistical analytical methods in the theory of probability has resulted in stumbling upon a system of mathematical application and I call it Pyramidon system. There is a vast number of properties that will evolve in this system which are very useful in the applications of probability theory. This phenomena of Pyramidon offers an incredibly real and practical correlation with gambling randomized events; lottery ; horse racing, sports betting, stock market forecasts. This system is a very simple form of mathematical application of simple additions and subtractions and you can enjoy the thrill of applying this method in forecasting many winning combinations in gambling events. There is lot of advanced steps in the pyramidon system, that by applying them properly in calculations, you will certainly going to get the winning number to a high degree of occurrence. Let us do some work out on getting some winning numbers in a local single digit daily lottery draws. The winning numbers that have shown up for a week was 2, 5, 1, 0, 3, 4, 8. Now you want to select next winning number to play for the odds of 1:9. How you are going to select the winning number or numbers and be on the plus side? If you play by selecting the numbers randomly then your chance of winning the event will be at random and have highest uncertainty level. It will be sheer luck if you win. Suppose that you come across that the sequence of above past lottery winning numbers are well coinciding with that of the serial number of your recent electricity bill Well, there is a good chance that the next digit in the electricity bill can be a winning number ill. This method is known as conditional probability and all the forecasting of winning events in the said pyramidon system is totally based on. When you take the past records of certain winning numbers of any lottery or similar gambling event in a serial format and workout according to the methods of the pyramidon system, you will get the conditional format or the trend line. This trend line or the conditional format generated in the pyramidon is the main feature having a trend of occurrence of the numbers and thus eliminating the dreaded factor of total randomness and uncertainty level in calculating probability factors. Understanding & using the trend factor in calculating the winning number is the real task to master and dig-out. There will be a number of trend lines generated in the pyramidon and a trend line having the highest correlation factor could be selected in tracking the winning number. Not only this, you can implement pyramidon system in the initial stages in many of conditional probability methods and the correlation methods like that of Linear Regression methods and in of Monte Carlo simulations in forecasting the winning lottery number to utmost certainty levels..

Betting Odds, Implied Probability And Beating The Closing Line (Page 1 of 2)

In order to profit long term from gambling, it is essential to understand the underlying mathematical concept behind the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Using a random line at Pinnacle Sports for a mythical Yankees/Royals game we see New York offered at -220 and Kansas City at +206 and from those betting lines, we can calculate the implied probability each team has of winning that particular game.

To calculate the implied probability of winning for a favorite (where the odds are negative), take the absolute value of the odds and divide that by the absolute value of the odds plus 100. For the New York Yankees, the implied probability of winning is:

220 / (220 + 100) = 220 / 320 = 0.6875 = 68.75%

To calculate the implied probability of winning for an underdog (where the odds are positive), divide 100 by the sum of the line plus 100. For the New York Yankees, the implied probability of winning is:

100 / (206 + 100) = 100 / 306 = 0.3268 = 32.68%

Looking at the percentages, the sum of them is over 100 which is never a good sign for percentages; in fact, the sum of them is 101.43%. The additional 1.43% represents the theoretical hold for the sportsbook or more commonly called the vigorish (and generally shortened to vig) which is the % amount charged by the sportsbook for its services. Assuming that the sportsbook draws in equal action on both sides it will then make 1.43% profit on the total amount of bets placed but since they are unlikely to attain equal action in most betting lines, it is only a theoretical hold.

Since the winning percentages contain an element of vigorish, we need to remove that in order to end up with the actual, rather than the implied, winning percentages and this will give us the no vig line; this is done by dividing each implied winning percentage by the sum of both winning percentages.

For the New York Yankees, the actual probability of winning is:

0.6875 / 101.43 = 0.6778 = 67.78%

For the New York Yankees, the actual probability of winning is:

0.3268 / 101.43 = 0.3222 = 32.22%

Now we can convert the two actual win probabilities into a no-vig line.

For an actual win probability equal or greater than 0.50 – or 50% in percentage terms – the formula (where FV is equal to the decimal win probability of the favored team) for the Yankees line is:

-100 / ((1 / FV) – 1) = -100 / ((1 / 0.6778) – 1) = -210.4

For an actual win probability less than 0.50 – or 50% in percentage terms – the formula (where UD is equal to the decimal win probability of the underdog) for the Royals line is:

((1 / UD) – 1) * 100 = ((1 / 0.3222) – 1) * 100 = +210.4

Since the sportsbook vig has been removed from the lines, the lines are identical in absolute terms.

This above example is where there is a clear favorite (with negative odds) and a clear underdog (with positive odds). However in the cases where there are two teams which are similarly favored by the market or, more commonly, the betting lines which use a point spread the calculation is slightly different. In this case the implied probability and actual probability can be calculated by using the New York Yankees example of calculating the implied and actual probability of winning.