Tag Archives: probability
How To Make Profit Out Of Losing Horses?
With the advent of betting exchanges getting recognition for a more modular system for horse betting, more and more people are trying to make dividends by betting on horses which are tempted to lose. What ever the proposition of winning money on losing horse, it is always best to bet against the horse thats favorite to win the race.
This can be understood this way too, generally, a horse with lots of money on stake over is considered favorite, in some instances, there could be a horse with lower prices but better chances of winning the game. And from on the edge of that particular rate a punter starts making profit after betting on that horse.
So a punter makes profit by betting on favorite that are often priced very low. Sometimes betting on the exchanges proves very crucial as they are very efficient barometer to judge probability. But a wrong probability and slightest error on decision let you to watch your money draining away like water down a plug hole. Therefore distinction between favorite and true favorites is a must for a strong winning probability.
By following a certain criteria one can easily judge the positive aspect of a horses form with strong probability to win the race. The horse should have strong probability and strong contender ship to win the race with ability to run on the track where race is about to be organized. Analysis of general form of the horse races over a period of last few weeks conducted on the track.
Track record of trainer on a specific track on a horse including second position or one winning during the period of previous 14 days is a very good sign for betting. There are many other better ways to know about a better trainer as he can be adjudged by reading daily racing forms or information can be received through the tracks. A better trainer can be known from the victories, earnings and excellent track records as it force a punter to bet on a horse trained by them.
A good horse trainer always remains stiffer on his horse; the relation between a trainer and a horse is quite strained as it never been easy for a horse trainer to teach. There is times when a trainer has to test limit of his horses to the expectation of race. A good trainer never leaves an effort unturned to make his horse to win a race at any cost. Meanwhile, there are some trainers, who, feel the task is too hard be achieved by a horse and become lax, as this attachment with horse results into failure on the track, so be wary of these emotional sort of trainers to get your desired result while betting on a horse.
After trainer, it is the turn of the jockey that knows very well all the trade secrets of horse racing, especially, veteran ones. They know well how to steer horses according to a track’s nooks and crannies. Jockey should also have winning track record of 10 percent.
Betting Tips and Money Management in Soccer Betting
Soccer experts provide you with betting tips, the media publishes the latest news about the opponent teams and their key players, bookmakers support hundreds of betting methods
However, when you finally place your huge wager on a sure favorite, this is the time to start praying… Unfortunately, the world of soccer betting is quite unpredictable. There are thousands of factors playing against us. How can we cut our betting losses? The only way to do it is by using money management strategies.
This article summarizes the methods and strategies of betting money management and provides a statistical comparison of their performance based on betting odds and match results of top European leagues.
The most common betting money management strategies in our days are: Martingale, Row of numbers and Kelly criterion. While the first two do not require any prior information, Kelly criterion requires the punter to know the probability of a win.
DEFINITIONS
Before presenting the performance analysis, a brief description of the above-mentioned strategies is necessary:
— Martingale strategy means doubling the stack after a loss and returning back to the starting stack after a win. This strategy is the most popular today and promises positive profits, but requires intensive money investments.
— Row of numbers means planning a series of constant profits. Given betting odds, the punter calculates each stake in a way that will allow him to make the planned profit. In case he loses, he should increase the next stack in such a way the profit will return both the money already lost and the planned profits for the lost games. This strategy is less aggressive than Martingale but still dangerous.
— Kelly criterion: mathematically proven to be the best strategy in the long run. However, it requires knowing the probability of a win. The stacks are calculated in proportion of the size of your funds and according to the relation between the probability of a win and the betting odds. When probability and odds are high, a high stack will be placed and vice versa.
DATA AND METHODS
In order to evaluate the performance of each strategy, we analyzed the betting odds set by bookmakers for the top European leagues. Imagine that bookmakers are punters who place a stake on a favorite with minimal betting odds. One can easily estimate the probability of a win by dividing the average number of home/draw/away outcomes by the total number of games in a season.
The betting odds and results are taken from the four European top leagues playing in the 2008/2009 season: English Premier, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga 1 and Spanish Primera Division.
SUMMARY
— The results show that Kelly criterion is the best money management strategy of the three with an average profit of +5% compared to +1% (Row) and +1.2% (Martingale).
— The most profitable was the French Ligue 1 with a betting profit of +22% (Kelly), +9% (Row) and +10% (Martingale).
— The least profitable was the English Premier League with a betting loses of -10% (Kelly) ), -9% (Row) and -8% (Martingale).