Tag Archives: possibility

Expectation Value (EV) Calculation (Page 1 of 4)

July 28, 2018   Game guide   No comments

Any action you make in poker game should be focused on making a profit. Your efforts are worthwhile if they lead to the maximum profit possible or have the best average profit value. The average value of a possible profit is also named Expectation Value (EV).

Sometimes there are situations when you have several possible ways to play the hand. The profit of each variant = ev1, ev2,…,evN, the possibility of each variant = p1, p2,…, pN accordingly. Then the expectation value of the profit in the given situation is calculated by the formula:

EV = ev1*p1 + ev2*S2 + … + evN*SN (*)

The following is a very complicated example, but it has great practical value and touches on all the basic moments and rules of calculation. Let us assume that you have AK and raised on the preflop. The contender re-raised. Both stacks are 100BB. What is your best move? Should you call his re-raise, fold or re-raise (4bet)?

To answer these questions you need to calculate the EV of the call and the re-raise. The EV of the fold, obviously, is zero.

It is necessary to note that the EV of an action is the difference of our stack between the end and the beginning of an action, but not at the beginning of a hand. You can’t get the money you have just invested in the pot.

When you call:

Let us set a task first:

The opponent made 3bet of your raise (raise=5??, 3bet=15??). You need to determine the possibility of your opponent having certain hands.

Let us divide the range of 3bet into two groups

The first group: he will play 3bet every time; these are QQ+ and ??.

The second group: he will play 3bet less than 100% of the time.

JJ: 70%. It means that he will re-raise with JJ 70% of the time, and will not make any further play.

AQ, ??: 30% (no more for small limits)

AJ, QK: 20%

1)?? and ?? have three combinations each, QQ-6, ??- 9, total 18

2)JJ – 6

3)AQ – 12, ?? – 6, total 18

4)AJ, KQ – 12 each, total 24

The total number of hands the opponent may re-raise with

13+6*0.7+18*0.3+24*0.2 = 32,4

The possibility the opponent has ??:

?(??) = 3/32.4 = 0.09.

The possibility of other hands:

?(??) = ?(??) = 0.09.

?(QQ) = 6/32.4 = 0.19

P(AK) = 9/32.4 = 0.28

P(JJ) = 0.7*6/32.4 = 0.13

P(AQ) = 12*0.3/32.4 = 0.11

P(TT) = 6*0.3/32.4 = 0.06

P(AJ) = P(KQ) = 12*0.2/32.4 = 0.07

Let’s calculate the EV of various possibilities:

AA:

If you have K and/or A on the flop you should play with your entire stack.

The flop with a king and/or an ace may happen 23% of the time.

You may calculate this in the following way: one ace and three kings are left in the pack, four cards. To calculate the required probability, let’s calculate the probability of the opposite situation – there will be neither an ace nor a king on flop.

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Play Roulette for cash as well as for Enjoyment

July 5, 2018   Game type   No comments

Apart from the typical approaches to earn money on web, which are additionally currently being swarmed around by world wide web experienced people, additionally, there are some other dangerous but can-be rewarding endeavors on the web that may also make you very good money. One among that is to have fun with roulette for cash.

Roulette is actually game of opportunity which makes you earn cash in the event you produced the ideal estimate on the place where ball may land on the huge wheel spun by the supplier. In case you have gone to casinos, you’d be better with acquainted with the roulette activity also it appears a simple game to be familiar with. Certainly, the guidelines of the activity is very straightforward as well as the fact is, it’s not as complicated as understanding poker as well as other betting games.

If you wish to play roulette for cash, as well as produce a relatively good quantity of earnings with this game of possibility, here are some suggestions that may help.

Prior to playing, always specify a limitation as to just how much you might be ready to risk for that game as well as stay with that quantity while playing. Specify a quantity as well that you could manage to give up, and don’t exceed that. It is very important that you need to have self-control while playing in this particular activity of possibility. Being successful in a activity of roulette is mainly by possibility therefore, when you have been in to a number of failures for the day, then you definitely need to try to stop.
Additionally it is sensible to not wager huge on a single spin. Yet again, roulette is really game of possibility and you may certainly not realize in the event you may win or perhaps lose and when you will lose, losing huge amount of your cash might not be exciting. Figure out how to pace the game nicely. Avoid being such in a rush. An excellent paced game may also enable you to have fun with the game. You don’t need to wager upon each and every spin. If you’re not really feeling fortunate on a wager, then you can certainly ignore a spin.

Remember also that when you would like to carry out roulette for cash, remember that there is certainly what exactly is known as an U . s . roulette as well as European roulette and also if you wish to earn money from this game, it is possible to decide to play Eu roulette above the United states one. The Eu roulette features just one zero contrary to double zeros within the United states roulette which may be converted into getting much more probability of winning together with the previous.

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