Tag Archives: opponent

Expectation Value (EV) Calculation (Page 1 of 4)

Any action you make in poker game should be focused on making a profit. Your efforts are worthwhile if they lead to the maximum profit possible or have the best average profit value. The average value of a possible profit is also named Expectation Value (EV).

Sometimes there are situations when you have several possible ways to play the hand. The profit of each variant = ev1, ev2,…,evN, the possibility of each variant = p1, p2,…, pN accordingly. Then the expectation value of the profit in the given situation is calculated by the formula:

EV = ev1*p1 + ev2*S2 + … + evN*SN (*)

The following is a very complicated example, but it has great practical value and touches on all the basic moments and rules of calculation. Let us assume that you have AK and raised on the preflop. The contender re-raised. Both stacks are 100BB. What is your best move? Should you call his re-raise, fold or re-raise (4bet)?

To answer these questions you need to calculate the EV of the call and the re-raise. The EV of the fold, obviously, is zero.

It is necessary to note that the EV of an action is the difference of our stack between the end and the beginning of an action, but not at the beginning of a hand. You can’t get the money you have just invested in the pot.

When you call:

Let us set a task first:

The opponent made 3bet of your raise (raise=5??, 3bet=15??). You need to determine the possibility of your opponent having certain hands.

Let us divide the range of 3bet into two groups

The first group: he will play 3bet every time; these are QQ+ and ??.

The second group: he will play 3bet less than 100% of the time.

JJ: 70%. It means that he will re-raise with JJ 70% of the time, and will not make any further play.

AQ, ??: 30% (no more for small limits)

AJ, QK: 20%

1)?? and ?? have three combinations each, QQ-6, ??- 9, total 18

2)JJ – 6

3)AQ – 12, ?? – 6, total 18

4)AJ, KQ – 12 each, total 24

The total number of hands the opponent may re-raise with

13+6*0.7+18*0.3+24*0.2 = 32,4

The possibility the opponent has ??:

?(??) = 3/32.4 = 0.09.

The possibility of other hands:

?(??) = ?(??) = 0.09.

?(QQ) = 6/32.4 = 0.19

P(AK) = 9/32.4 = 0.28

P(JJ) = 0.7*6/32.4 = 0.13

P(AQ) = 12*0.3/32.4 = 0.11

P(TT) = 6*0.3/32.4 = 0.06

P(AJ) = P(KQ) = 12*0.2/32.4 = 0.07

Let’s calculate the EV of various possibilities:

AA:

If you have K and/or A on the flop you should play with your entire stack.

The flop with a king and/or an ace may happen 23% of the time.

You may calculate this in the following way: one ace and three kings are left in the pack, four cards. To calculate the required probability, let’s calculate the probability of the opposite situation – there will be neither an ace nor a king on flop.

Great Gambling Board Games Of The Past

In the past history, people have played many board games for many reasons, some which includes camaraderie, competition and skill building, as well as family bonding. However, some games were played for gambling. These games allowed winners to not only win the bragging rights that they beat their friends and other great players, but also allowed then to walk away from the board richer than when they came to it. Some of these games were changed to include drinking, still a gambling game they were converted into games that included taking alcoholic beverages. These games were designed with adult entertainment in mind and they are great party favorites of the past.

One such game is an old Scottish drinking game, which was converted from a gambling game called Tablero and Toblaro. In the Tablero version the game is played with coins, when converted to Toblaro it is then a game played with shot glasses. The game has two dice, a checkerboard with 7 by 7 squares and 15 coins anted by each of the players. The game was a popular game by the Spanish lower class citizens, and was eventually banned by the Pope.

The game is played starting with each of the players rolling the dice, with high tying players re-rolling the die. The low roller must place 5 coins on either row 1 or row 7, with one being in each of the squares; the high roller places two coins on the same row. The lowest roller plays the game first to start the game.

After throwing the dice, the players will lose their coins should the player throw a 7, 11, or 12. If another person throws any other number he will move 2 of the coins, one per dice. The player cannot move the same pieces more than once in a turn. Each turn moves in the same column it is in, not diagonally or across. The player is limited to moving the coin toward him or away from him, by the number of rows that are indicated on the die. Should the player not be able to use both dice, he loses his turn to his opponent, as both dice must be used.

After moving the coins associated with the two dice, if there are two or more coins lined up in a row, other than 1 and 7, then the player may take them off the board. In this case the opponent may put his coins in the spaces and take his turn, however if the opponent does not have enough money the game is over. When they get the dice they must throw at least one time.

If there is a row of 7 coins together, the player who is moving can pronounce that it is a “run” and then the opponent must stake two more coins and throw the dice, if he gets a 7,11, or 12 he will then lose all 9 coins. Otherwise the moving player will get those two coins and keep running calling the run and rolling the dice again until he gives up the coins, or the opponent can no longer stake the money. The player with the most money at the end of the game is the winner.

In order to change the game from Tablero to Toblaro, the coins are replace with shot glasses filled with alcoholic beverages, when the money (or the glasses) are captured, the winner gets to drink it and the loser must refill the contents with his alcohol.

These games are great games for adults to play, and have introduced other games that have almost the same concepts such as bingo where the person with the right amount of chips on the numbers wins the pot and Yahtzee for money where the die tells the person what he can fill in on his card. All of these gambling games are an exciting way to enjoy board games for adults.