Tag Archives: odds
Horse Race Handicapping: Dutching
Dutching is the professional handicapper’s equivalent to portfolio diversification. One of the greatest mistakes an investor can make is not properly diversifying his or her portfolio. Adequate diversification will include an increased number of investments, allowing those with upward price movements to offset those with downward price movements.
In handicapping, dutching allows a bettor to wager on two or more runners, at different odds, in the same race. The bets are made in proportion to each horse’s chances of winning, so that no matter which runner prevails, the payoff will be the same. Since dutching allows us to bet on three or four runners, obviously we have a better chance of cashing Xtra Winners. However; even when we win while dutching, we will always have some losing tickets with this method.
Here is how it works: Assume that through applying a long-shot angle, you have eliminated the non-contenders and are left with three horses. You are confident that one of the three will be victorious but have no particular bias toward any of them. By placing a varying win bet on each of the three horses, the dollar amounts being dictated by the odds, you will realize a profit no matter which of the three wins. In addition, the profit will be approximately the same for each outcome, and you can predetermine it.
So, how do we know how much to wager on each horse in order to guarantee a profit? First, we need to convert the horses’ current odds into a percentage. This tell us what the market or pool says the real-time percentage chance each horse has of winning the race. The math for this is simple, but, in the interest of brevity, I am going to omit it here. It is covered in detail in my book, Handicapping the Wall Street Way: Picking Xtra Winners at the Track.
Just print the following chart:
ODDS ODDS AMT. BET PAYOFF
Pisces Pleasure 3-1 25 $25.00 $100.00
Nostalgic Moment 4-1 20 $20.00 $100.00
Trubble 9-1 10 $10.00 $100.00
With a total outlay of fifty-five dollars, we would expect a profit of forty-five dollars whether Pisces Pleasure, Nostalgic Moment, or Trubble won. For this example, I assigned a unit value of one dollar to each percentage point. Although the value assigned is entirely at each individual handicapper’s discretion, it MUST be the same for each horse.
As with the stock market, there is a certain degree of volatility in the betting pool. It is not at all uncommon to see sizable fluctuations in the odds, especially at smaller tracks. To negate these fluctuations, one should endeavor to wait until the last possible second to place his or her wagers.
Playing the Minnesota Lottery
Playing the Minnesota Lottery
If you are in need of a good pick-me-up, nothing can beat the thrill of scratching off a Minnesota lottery ticket, especially if it happens to be a winner. The Minnesota state lottery has much to offer in the way of instant win games and also weekly and daily drawing games. From Powerball to Hot Lotto and Northstar Cash, you can’t go wrong with the Minnesota lottery.
If you like the thrill of watching a televised drawing and you enjoy picking out your lucky lottery numbers, then Hot Lotto just might be the game for you. The jackpot for the game starts at one million dollars, and the prize money is rolled over each time no one wins the drawing. The game involves picking five numbers between one and thirty-nine and one additional number called the HOT ball. This number must fall between one and nineteen. The Hot Lotto game is played among several different states, including Iowa, Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, West Virginia and South Dakota in addition to in Minnesota. Your odds for winning any prize in this Minnesota lottery game are one in sixteen. However, if you will only be happy with the jackpot, your odds stack up to be a bit more grim, at one in eleven million.
However, there is more to the Minnesota state lottery than meets the eye. Other than that going to prize money, the majority of the proceeds from the Minnesota lottery go toward a state environmental trust fund that supports national resources, gaming and fishing and other environmental issues. This makes purchasing a lottery ticket worth a lot more than just a dollar, even if you do not ever win a penny. Every time you purchase a Minnesota lottery ticket, you can rest assured that your money is going to a good cause, and who knows? You just might end up winning something after all.
While the Minnesota lottery offers decent odds you may want to consider playing other state lotteries. There are several reputable websites offering online lottery ticket sales. Minnesota is one of several Powerball states that have chosen to add the popular Mega Millions lottery to its lotto lineup. Due to federal laws and regulations the Minnesota lottery does not allow players to buy online lottery tickets. Once federal regulations are clarified many lottery experts believe it will only be a matter of time before most state lotteries allow players to buy lotto tickets online.