Tag Archives: new york
Betting Odds, Implied Probability And Beating The Closing Line (Page 1 of 2)
In order to profit long term from gambling, it is essential to understand the underlying mathematical concept behind the odds offered by sportsbooks.
Using a random line at Pinnacle Sports for a mythical Yankees/Royals game we see New York offered at -220 and Kansas City at +206 and from those betting lines, we can calculate the implied probability each team has of winning that particular game.
To calculate the implied probability of winning for a favorite (where the odds are negative), take the absolute value of the odds and divide that by the absolute value of the odds plus 100. For the New York Yankees, the implied probability of winning is:
220 / (220 + 100) = 220 / 320 = 0.6875 = 68.75%
To calculate the implied probability of winning for an underdog (where the odds are positive), divide 100 by the sum of the line plus 100. For the New York Yankees, the implied probability of winning is:
100 / (206 + 100) = 100 / 306 = 0.3268 = 32.68%
Looking at the percentages, the sum of them is over 100 which is never a good sign for percentages; in fact, the sum of them is 101.43%. The additional 1.43% represents the theoretical hold for the sportsbook or more commonly called the vigorish (and generally shortened to vig) which is the % amount charged by the sportsbook for its services. Assuming that the sportsbook draws in equal action on both sides it will then make 1.43% profit on the total amount of bets placed but since they are unlikely to attain equal action in most betting lines, it is only a theoretical hold.
Since the winning percentages contain an element of vigorish, we need to remove that in order to end up with the actual, rather than the implied, winning percentages and this will give us the no vig line; this is done by dividing each implied winning percentage by the sum of both winning percentages.
For the New York Yankees, the actual probability of winning is:
0.6875 / 101.43 = 0.6778 = 67.78%
For the New York Yankees, the actual probability of winning is:
0.3268 / 101.43 = 0.3222 = 32.22%
Now we can convert the two actual win probabilities into a no-vig line.
For an actual win probability equal or greater than 0.50 – or 50% in percentage terms – the formula (where FV is equal to the decimal win probability of the favored team) for the Yankees line is:
-100 / ((1 / FV) – 1) = -100 / ((1 / 0.6778) – 1) = -210.4
For an actual win probability less than 0.50 – or 50% in percentage terms – the formula (where UD is equal to the decimal win probability of the underdog) for the Royals line is:
((1 / UD) – 1) * 100 = ((1 / 0.3222) – 1) * 100 = +210.4
Since the sportsbook vig has been removed from the lines, the lines are identical in absolute terms.
This above example is where there is a clear favorite (with negative odds) and a clear underdog (with positive odds). However in the cases where there are two teams which are similarly favored by the market or, more commonly, the betting lines which use a point spread the calculation is slightly different. In this case the implied probability and actual probability can be calculated by using the New York Yankees example of calculating the implied and actual probability of winning.
LaGrangeville Named the Jackpot Capital of New York
LaGrangeville Named the Jackpot Capital of New York
LaGrangeville, New York has been named the Jackpot Capital of Pennsylvania. LuckyLotto, an online lottery website, found in its study that LaGrangeville has more Jackpot winners per capita than any other city in New York. Located in the southeast part of LaGrange, New York, LaGrangeville has now been dubbed the Jackpot Capital of New York.
This comes as a surprise to Christopher James Bell, a filmmaker from LaGrangeville. “I didn’t know that LaGrangeville was the lottery capital of the world”, says Bell. According to Bell, LaGrangeville is a really nice play to grow up, but there isn’t much to do. “Maybe there’s something supernatural going on,” he says, “or maybe there’s so much nothing to do that people just scratch cards and pencil in numbers all day out of boredom.”
LuckyLotto, an online lottery website specializing in lottery news and information conducted a study of the lottery in New York that yielded some interesting results. LuckyLotto reported that LaGrangeville, in Dutchess County New York, has had more Jackpot winners per capita than any other city in New York.
According to the official New York lottery website, LaGrangeville, a hamlet of the Town of LaGrange with a population of under 9,000, is home to 3 Lottery Jackpot winners since 2001. LaGrangeville just might be the luckiest town in the US.
LaGrangeville is home to two recent Lottery Millionaires. In 2001, Gertrude Scaccia and her sister Nancy, of Hopewell Junction, split an $18,000,000 Lotto Jackpot. In February of 2008, Anna Marie and Steven Cuomo claimed their $1,000,000 Jackpot. Anna Marie and Steven won the top prize on the Lottery’s Liberty’s Millions scratch-off game.
More recently, in May of 2008 sixty-five year-old William Rao of Hopewell Junction won $1,000,000. Rao, who stopped in for a cup of coffee decided to buy a scratch ticket. Rao left the gas station with a cup of coffee and a $500,000,000 Extravaganza scratch-off lottery ticket worth $1,000,000.
Rao, who initially thought he had won $1,000 was elated when he saw the extra zeros and realized that he had actually won $1 million. Rao purchased his winning ticket on May 15, 2008 and claimed it at the Lottery’s Fishkill Customer Service Center on May 21, 2008. It is unlikely for a town as small as LaGrangeville to have even one jackpot winner, but to have three in less than 10 years, and 2 in the same year is unheard of! LaGrangeville must have four-leaf clovers growing up like weeds.
Anthony Galioto, who works in LaGrangeville, says he still tries to buy lottery tickets when he can but says, “I doubt I would hit until I turn about 85!” Anthony is evidence that there are still people in LaGrangeville who have not yet won the lottery, but it seems to me that there is no better place to try.
Even though there are still people in LaGrangeville who have not yet won the jackpot, their lottery success certainly warrants an award. Because of this amazing streak of luck, Lucky Lotto is pleased to name LaGrangeville the “Jackpot Capital of New York.”
Recent reports indicate that LaGrangeville lottery players may soon have another lottery option-the sale of online lottery tickets. New York recently allowed the cross sales of both Powerball and Mega Millions in an attempt to bolster flagging ticket sales and state lottery officials believe the ability of players to buy online lottery tickets could boost sales considerably.