Tag Archives: loss
Free Betting Advice – Horse Racing System Statistics – Odds On Horses
Horse racing systems are regularly based on research and statistics. Without them, making a horse racing system would be a lot more complex. I use a lot of programs and Internet resources for my own research, but this can be very expensive and run into hundreds each month. So in order to present you a bit of a helping hand I have listed a number of valuable statistics beneath:
+Odds On Horses+
The vast majority of people seem to think odds on horses are unbeatable or bad value. Neither is true, they get beaten pretty often, and as for value if you get a Pattern winning horse running in a Seller at 1/5, that is potentially decent value.
A quick statistic now:
58% of odds on horses win their races on the flat.
54% win on the AW (All Weather). That 4% difference makes quite a difference, so pay closer attention to short-priced racehorses on this surface.
Splitting all flat races into race type with the percenatge of winning odds on runners:
4+ & all age H/c’s – 48%
Specific age H/c’s – 53%
Claimers – 56%
2yo Sellers – 56%
3yo Seller – 60%
Other Sellers – 56%
3yo & all age Maidens – 59%
2yo Maidens – 61%
2yo condition races – 62%
3yo & all age cnds races – 57%
All the above based on statistics over 5 years.
This will confidently give you a little help in pointing out likely odds on winners.
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+5f Sprint Favourites +
In reply to a query I was sent with regard to how many odds on favourites win 5f sprints:
Over the last 16 years,
Handicap – 23% – 924/3960 – & 65533;376.62 Loss
Claimer/Auction – 35% – 420/1208 – & 65533;89.98 Loss
Non-Handicap – 35% – 779/220 – & 65533;233.10 Loss
Group or Maiden – 38% – 878/2310 – & 65533;175.09 Loss
Sprints are not really good for odds on runners, you ought to be looking at them in 1 mile and upwards races. Also using the betting exchanges will offer better prices on some, but in a number ofcases once you deduct the commission you can have a lower price than the bookies offer.
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+Winners last time out – Flat+
Just some quick basic stats for the flat from 10 years of statistics:
Last time out winners win 17.45% next time out
Horses that won there last 2 races win 21.52% next time out
Winners of there last 3 win 24.81%
Last 4 win 26.25%
Last 5 win 29.17%
Last 6 win 38.24
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+Winners last time out – National Hunt+
Source – 10 years all NH races run under rules. Chances of horse winning next time out:
Last time out winner – 23.61%
Won last 2 – 29%
Won last 3 – 33.89%
Won last 4 – 37.65%
Won last 5 – 39.64%
Won last 6 – 38.53%
Compared to the flat, sequence winners over jumps have a much bigger probability of winning again.
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+Nursery Topweights+
A Nursery is a Handicap race for 2 year olds.
I read a comment in the RFO (Racing and Football Outlook newspaper) from one of their ‘tipsters’, that ‘top weight’s in Nurseries are always worth a second look.
Now me being what I am, I wanted to test this wonderful theory, as this is how we learn, so I ran it through my software.
As normal with this type of media information it is shot down in flames.
Over the last 16 years:
Qualifiers: 2459
Winners: 359
Strike-rate: 14.56%
Loss: -& 65533;461
Average loss per year: -& 65533;28
Only 1996 showed a profit of & 65533;36, apparently a coincidence.
Not very good is it? Obviously it’s the media giving the typical punter the normal worthless myths.
Remember, when you hear media remarks such as ‘horses for courses’, ‘always back the outsider of 3’, etc, the opposite is commonly true.
These stats ought to help you develop your method betting, and go towards making a horse racing system.
Are you a problem gambler? (Page 1 of 2)
Gamblers who fall in love with the excitement and “action” of gambling may, at first, be quite successful. They have fantasies of further success and of gambling becoming their personal path to wealth and power. Those who are headed for problems think they are smarter than the average bettor. They know that gambling is going to work for them because they, unlike less clever people, really understand how to beat the system.
As they become more involved in gambling, they derive an increasing portion of their self-esteem from seeing themselves as smart or lucky. Because of this, two things happen when they do incur the inevitable losses. First, they suffer monetary loss. Second, and often more important, they suffer a deflated ego.
To salvage their self-esteem, they rationalize losses by blaming other people, such as the jockey or the pitcher, or by blaming “bad luck” in cards, craps or lotteries. Or they reflect on their handicapping abilities and tell themselves they will not make the same “mistake” the next time.
The monetary loss is another matter, however, and this is dealt with differently. In order to recoup the loss, many gamblers “chase.” That is, they continue their betting and increase the amount of their bets in order to get even. Instead of saying, “It’s lost,” the chaser says, “I’ll get even tomorrow.” Chasing losses leads the gambler to gamble with more than he or she can afford to lose, and often to borrowing money in an effort to get even.
Many gamblers may chase for short periods, until they learn from bitter experience that this is counterproductive. The long-term preoccupation with chasing losses is the defining characteristic of the pathological gambler.
Chasing seems logical to many gamblers, as it means giving oneself a chance to get even.
If a gambler stops chasing, both money and self-esteem are lost. If the gambler continues chasing and wins, both can be regained. There is, therefore, the impetus to borrow in order to recoup losses. When continued gambling leads to still more losses, the compulsive gambler continues to borrow. The more money borrowed, the greater the commitment to more gambling as the only possible means of gaining enough money to pay off the debt.
This spiraling commitment to increased gambling often depletes family resources. Many compulsive gamblers cash in joint savings bonds, empty checking accounts, pawn joint property, and take out loans without the spouse’s knowledge. In order to preserve or regain respectability in the eyes of parents, spouse and others — and because their paychecks are insufficient — desperate gamblers see more gambling as the only alternative.
Fearing loss of respectability, the gambler hides loans. When gamblers default on the loans, fear that the bank or loan company will tell their spouse may drive them to more gambling as a possible quick way out. The behavior that caused the problem is increasingly seen by the gambler as the only solution, as there is no other way to get the needed money quickly.