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Bookmakers Soccer Predictions: 2008 vs 2009
Bookmakers use their own soccer prediction models. Their odds are usually calculated in a way that minimizes the payoffs for match favorites. The accuracy of these predictions can be analyzed by comparing between the betting odds and the real outcome of soccer matches.
This article compares between the accuracy of the soccer predictions made by bookmakers during 2008/09 and the first half of 2009/10. The comparison is based on the average betting odds from the top European soccer leagues.
DATA AND METHODSTo compare the accuracy of the bookmakers’ predictions, the authors of this article analyzed the match outcomes and average betting odds of the following 10 major European soccer leagues: Austrian Bundesliga, English Premier League, Dutch Eredivisie, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga 1, Greek Ethniki, Italian Serie A, Scottish Premier League, Spanish Primera Division and Turkish Super Lig.
The outcome of a match was estimated on the basis of the average payoff offered by the bookmakers for that match. The possible profit of a bettor who bets on bookies’ favorites was calculated according to the average betting odds.
SUMMARYThe conclusion was that the bookmakers successfully predicted the outcome of more than 54% of matches during the seasons 2008/09 and 2009/10. Thus, the average accuracy of bookmakers& 8217; soccer predictions is relatively high in the case of major European leagues. Nonetheless, the low profits make these predictions highly unprofitable as betting tips.
1×2 betting: — Losses of -4% and -2% respectively were estimated for bettors, who used fixed odds as betting tips.
— The only profitable league during those two seasons was Austrian Bundesliga (+14% and +6% of profit) with more than 60% of correct match predictions.
— The most unprofitable leagues were Scottish Premier (-22% and -6%) and German Bundesliga (-11% and -6%).
— The most drastic improvement in 1×2 betting profits was observed for the Dutch Eredivisie league where the profit changed from -11% to +8%.
— The most drastic degradation in 1×2 betting profits was observed for the Turkish Super Lig league where the profit changed from +4% to -18%.
Total under/over bets are the most unprofitable: — Total under/over 2.5 losses were nearly the same during both seasons and equal to 10%.
The conclusion is that using bookmakers& 8217; soccer predictions as betting tips does not pay off in daily betting. Though the accuracy of their predictions is high, their odds do not result in betting profits.
Baseball Favorites To Avoid When Betting.
As a rule, the betting public loves to bet on baseball favorites because they win. Baseball favorites win at about a 58% of the time during a season. However, betting on these baseball favorites can be a loser for the baseball bettor since the moneyline odds for them are against you because you are betting with the public. Because of this, you would be better betting on the underdogs instead of favorites because of the value inherent in betting them.
Regardless, there are some baseball favorites to avoid when betting. A few of the rules when betting baseball favorites to avoid when betting are:
1. Always avoid betting on favorites that play on the road against division rivals. Bet on the home dogs since you will often than not be happy you did! Thus, avoid the road favorites in the game. A good rule to follow in addition that will make you money is to bet on a home favorite with a spread between -110 and -130 inclusive that has won 6+ games and is coming off a loss in which they scored 5 or fewer runs.
2. Generally, a baseball favorite to avoid is one that is in a slump.
3. Another common baseball favorites to avoid when betting are the ones in the American League. For some reason, the American League is stacked with many great offenses and the pitching advantage is not as strong in the American League because of the DH rule. Therefore I try to avoid American League favorites whenever I place a bet – just about daily!
4. Another baseball favorite to avoid when betting is when a team is coming into a series off a win and going against a team that just got swept. The reason for this is that momentum is a killer and generally dogs that are losing will have trouble mustering up enough of an effort to overcome the odds and win.
5. Another baseball favorite to avoid when betting is when a favorite has won three games in a row. The opposite is also true. Baseball teams that are involved in a three-game loosing streak should also be avoided when betting.
6. Another baseball favorite to avoid when betting is when the team’s pitcher got clobbered in his last outing since he may not be mentally ready to pitch again. In the same vein, you should also consider the teams relief pitcher. If a relief pitcher for a team has been overworked in his last two games you might want to avoid that baseball team.
In conclusion, most professional gamblers that bet on sports will tell you that the secret to winning is to bet the underdog and avoid baseball favorites. When you bet the moneyline on the underdog you are risking less to win more. Generally, baseball favorites lose at least sixty games a year and the worst baseball teams win close to that same number. Therefore, the more favorites you bet, the higher the percentage of wins you will need to break even. The moneyline in baseball is always set by the starting pitcher of the baseball teams involved, even if the pitcher only plays for half an inning. Therefore, the profession gambler who bets on sports will look beyond the pitching to the teams other strengths to make their decision.