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Diary of a Spread Bettor
Thursday 22nd October
Last night was going very smoothly indeed until Salomon Kalou found the net just before half-time against Atletico. Id sold Chelseas supremacy at 1.5 for £100, so although this was a blow I wasnt too disheartened with the hosts 1-0 up at the interval. My other bet a £150 sell of goals at 2.4 in the CSKA Moscow v United game was looking good thanks to a half-time stalemate on the joke plastic pitch. What on earth does CSKA stand for? I hope its not crappy selling kills again.
My wife called me into the kitchen for a late supper at around 8.40pm. She obviously didnt get the message by the way I was hoofing down my lamb chops and giving one word answers, but it was 9.10pm before I got back to my computer and it wasnt good news from Stamford Bridge. Kalou and Ballack had both scored and my £50 profit had now evaporated into a £150 loss. Fortunately, it was still goalless in the United game, but my desk got a good kick when Antonio Valencia scored his second goal in two games in the 86th minute. I definitely came off worse.
I ended up with a £210 profit, but thanks to some muppet called Perea (Ive been assured hes not a Spanish cousin of Sporting Indexs ex-PR man Wally Pyrah) who scored an own goal for Atletico, Chelseas 4-0 win cost me £250. What a load of effort for a £40 loss should have just gone to the pub.
Friday 23rd October
I left the football alone last night and was very glad I did as I nearly got with Everton at Benfica. Their 5-0 defeat shows exactly what kind of form Im in, but at least I didnt play and could concentrate on the afternoons racing at Donny.
To be honest, I dont really like punting on a Friday afternoon. I generally do my proverbials and it didnt look at all easy at Town Moor. I had a meeting at lunchtime, so decided to just have a couple of bets before I left and hope that at least one of them kopped.
I was quite keen to buy winning distances, but the rain that had been promised all week hadnt materialised so I left that and stuck to a couple of win index bets. Barry Hills team are hitting form and he loves to send runners up here, so I bought £10 of his Tamaathul in the first at 31. Never a moments danger and the stunning grey came home 1 ½ lengths clear. A nice start to the day and £190 in my back pocket.
The key race for me though was the 2.55pm Nursery Handicap. You may remember me slagging off the aforementioned Wally Pyrah last month for not being able to tip milk into his cereal bowl. He gave me Tim Easterbys Antoniola at Ayr and he ran a decent race to finish third. However, today was the day in my eyes; he was slightly disappointing at Redcar last time, but he would surely relish this step up to a mile, with Graham Gibbons in the saddle for the first time. Ive seen gibbons at the zoo before theyre pretty strong.
Well, I couldnt go overboard on a horse trading at 5-7 on the index, but I bought at 7 for £10. Gibbons lived up to his name and brought the promising two-year-old home in front to wild screams of delight from me in a betting shop in the City. After I calmed down I must admit I felt a bit like a wally for getting so carried away, but cue the call from Wally himself. Well done, Wal, youre forgiven for that own goal at Stamford Bridge last night.
Saturday 24th October
Wow what a Friday! And I didnt even have a Crunchie. The key thing to do when youve had a great day though is to bring yourself back down to earth quickly or youll end up giving it all back. I travelled up to Doncaster for the Racing Post Trophy, so had plenty of time to consider all that, but was sure Villa could demolish Wolves in the early kick-off. ONeills side have been impressive in recent weeks and surely they can win this one. I bought their supremacy at 0.5 for £200 and was feeling confident driving up the M1.
Things werent going great at Molineux after an hour Wolves seemed to be holding their own and had had some decent chances. I dont what it is about Mick McCarthy, but he really gets on my nerves. He sounds like hes just left the Woolpack after about five pints every time hes interviewed on TV and hes quite simply not a very good Premier League manager. Im nearing Doncaster when Agbonlahor scores and I was now looking at a respectable £100 profit from the game. That is, until Ebanks-Blake scored a penalty a few minutes later and I had to settle for a £100 loss.
I arrived at Doncaster not long before the first race. It never fails to amaze me how drunk these people get up here – just glad theres no best dressed ladies competition. Some pretty ropey types. The key race of the day is obviously the RP Trophy, but Im more interested in the 5 furlong sprint an hour before. Ive followed Eric Alstons Invincible Lad all season and am convinced hes been laid out for this race following a pipe opener at Southwell last weekend. I buy him for a tenner at 16 on the index and although he runs okay, Im left with a £160 loss. To the Racing Post Trophy and although I like St Nicholas Abbey, I cant back him at the prices. He absolutely sluices up and I really should have got stuck in. Its a long old drive back down south.
Sunday 25th October
Its been something of a punting rollercoaster over the past couple of days, so I decide to have a quiet one on the Sabbath. The family and I travel up to Inverness for a couple of days relaxation in the Highlands. Its the first time the three monkeys have got on a plane so it is certainly a journey to remember, probably not for the people sitting near us though.
The big betting event of the day is obviously the Liverpool v United game and I have one bet on the match a £100 buy of Uniteds supremacy at 0.3. There was no reception when we got off the plane so I had to wait until we reached the hotel before finding out that Id lost £230. I consider downgrading to a 2-star hotel down the road. What makes it even more annoying is that I was going to buy bookings down to the inexperienced referee. When it rains it pours and its bloody pissing it down here.
Monday 26th October
The kids have a lovely day riding Shetland ponies and generally causing havoc. I rein in the punting on a quiet day three days are a long time in the betting world and Fantastic Friday was nothing but a distant memory. My misery was compounded when a colleague phoned up to say that Eliza Doolittle, a horse wed both backed at Yarmouth last week, had just won at Kempton by a nose. My daughter Eliza said not long afterwards, “whats wrong daddy?” Not easy to respond to that one.
Tuesday 27th October
Theres nothing worse than missing out on a winner when youre away and there were a couple yesterday which were like daggers in my heart. I hear that John Gosdens running a decent animal first time out in the maiden at Yarmouth. There are a couple of hotpots in the race, but I cant resist having a £5 buy of Commissionaire in the 1.10pm at 14. I listened to the race on my phone (probably the only place in Scotland where you can get reception) and it didnt sound good when he seemed to be tailed off after a furlong. Things had changed by the time they got to the furlong pole though and he rattled home to win going away. Yes! Should have bought for a tenner was the immediate reaction, but cant be greedy.
I decide to sell Uniteds supremacy at 1.1 for £100 against Barnsley tonight. Mark Robins may have saved Fergies career at the City Ground, but I can see him dumping his former boss out. Spurs and Everton have been involved in some high scoring games recently so I also buy goals at 2.9 for another £100. Im hoping these two games will pay for the hotel if not, the kids may be doing the dishes.
Wednesday 28th October
“Michael Owen is a red
” sing the United fans. Well, I could replace the word red with a number of four-letter words after he scored Uniteds second. That strike meant I made a £90 loss on the game and a £180 loss on the night thanks to just two goals in the Spurs v Everton match. Can you get marigolds for kids?
Im going to win it all back by buying goals at 2.8 in tonights Arsenal v Liverpool game for £150. There have been eight, six and nine goals scored in games between these two in the last three seasons. Its like buying money!
Cold Calling: A Hold'em Discussion
Definition of a cold call- Its one of the most ominous thing you can see in a hand of holdem. A player raises, another reraises, and then a third guy decides, “Eh, my hands so strong, I dont even want to reraise; Im just going to cold call this bet.” The cold call is usually symbolic of massive strength in a hand, especially from an experienced player. To put it in perspective, look at how the hand has to be viewed from that players perspective. Okay, a guy raised in early position to 3x, then another guy popped it to 10x. I have a hand that I want to see a flop with, but dont mind having the player who originally raised call or raise; Im just going to call this. What kind of hands fit those criteria? If its a tight, solid player, it may only be AA or KK. If its a thinking, looser player, it may include Ax suited, 33, and other random junk that retains the scariness of the cold call. Understand what the cold call means from player to player is important in how you proceed against the cold caller.
Playing against the cold caller- Lets look at a river example in no limit holdem, determining what kind of hands we need to play against the cold caller. The board on the river is 3s8hAh7d2h, putting the flush draw on board on the river. You hold A8o for top two pair, and have been betting the entire way, with two player calling your flop and turn bets. You elect to fire a river bet. Your first opponent raises you, and your second opponent, a solid, tight player calls a bet and a raise cold. What sort of hand do you need to call this bet, and what sort of hand do you need to raise this bet? First of all, your two pair is essentially worthless due to the cold caller; the raiser is trying to tell you he made his flush, and the cold caller sees this and says, “Hey, I dont care, my hand is STILL good enough to call with here.” I would be folding sets and the 45 straight here against a solid player without any other information, and would only be inclined to call with flushes above the 9. The only hand I would ever consider a three bet with is the pure nuts, Kxh, as its just far too likely that one of your opponents is holding that precise hand, given the board. Thats how much power the cold call wields; be wary when you see it.
Cold calling: Your usage- You also may use the cold call as a play in your arsenal, but it needs to be used with caution. Many times, you may think a hand that you should fold can become a cold calling hand if you think your original opponent is weak; dont make that mistake, because between the raiser and the cold caller, as a rule, someone will have some sort of hand that is represented on the board. If its three flush, Im not cold calling without a weak flush. 8910xx? 67 becomes a cold call, as well as 1010, while 89 becomes a fold. Use it to plant a firm ground on the amount youre willing to invest in the hand.