Tag Archives: horse racing
Free Betting Advice – Horse Racing System Statistics – Odds On Horses
Horse racing systems are regularly based on research and statistics. Without them, making a horse racing system would be a lot more complex. I use a lot of programs and Internet resources for my own research, but this can be very expensive and run into hundreds each month. So in order to present you a bit of a helping hand I have listed a number of valuable statistics beneath:
+Odds On Horses+
The vast majority of people seem to think odds on horses are unbeatable or bad value. Neither is true, they get beaten pretty often, and as for value if you get a Pattern winning horse running in a Seller at 1/5, that is potentially decent value.
A quick statistic now:
58% of odds on horses win their races on the flat.
54% win on the AW (All Weather). That 4% difference makes quite a difference, so pay closer attention to short-priced racehorses on this surface.
Splitting all flat races into race type with the percenatge of winning odds on runners:
4+ & all age H/c’s – 48%
Specific age H/c’s – 53%
Claimers – 56%
2yo Sellers – 56%
3yo Seller – 60%
Other Sellers – 56%
3yo & all age Maidens – 59%
2yo Maidens – 61%
2yo condition races – 62%
3yo & all age cnds races – 57%
All the above based on statistics over 5 years.
This will confidently give you a little help in pointing out likely odds on winners.
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+5f Sprint Favourites +
In reply to a query I was sent with regard to how many odds on favourites win 5f sprints:
Over the last 16 years,
Handicap – 23% – 924/3960 – & 65533;376.62 Loss
Claimer/Auction – 35% – 420/1208 – & 65533;89.98 Loss
Non-Handicap – 35% – 779/220 – & 65533;233.10 Loss
Group or Maiden – 38% – 878/2310 – & 65533;175.09 Loss
Sprints are not really good for odds on runners, you ought to be looking at them in 1 mile and upwards races. Also using the betting exchanges will offer better prices on some, but in a number ofcases once you deduct the commission you can have a lower price than the bookies offer.
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+Winners last time out – Flat+
Just some quick basic stats for the flat from 10 years of statistics:
Last time out winners win 17.45% next time out
Horses that won there last 2 races win 21.52% next time out
Winners of there last 3 win 24.81%
Last 4 win 26.25%
Last 5 win 29.17%
Last 6 win 38.24
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+Winners last time out – National Hunt+
Source – 10 years all NH races run under rules. Chances of horse winning next time out:
Last time out winner – 23.61%
Won last 2 – 29%
Won last 3 – 33.89%
Won last 4 – 37.65%
Won last 5 – 39.64%
Won last 6 – 38.53%
Compared to the flat, sequence winners over jumps have a much bigger probability of winning again.
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+Nursery Topweights+
A Nursery is a Handicap race for 2 year olds.
I read a comment in the RFO (Racing and Football Outlook newspaper) from one of their ‘tipsters’, that ‘top weight’s in Nurseries are always worth a second look.
Now me being what I am, I wanted to test this wonderful theory, as this is how we learn, so I ran it through my software.
As normal with this type of media information it is shot down in flames.
Over the last 16 years:
Qualifiers: 2459
Winners: 359
Strike-rate: 14.56%
Loss: -& 65533;461
Average loss per year: -& 65533;28
Only 1996 showed a profit of & 65533;36, apparently a coincidence.
Not very good is it? Obviously it’s the media giving the typical punter the normal worthless myths.
Remember, when you hear media remarks such as ‘horses for courses’, ‘always back the outsider of 3’, etc, the opposite is commonly true.
These stats ought to help you develop your method betting, and go towards making a horse racing system.
The Perfect Horse Racing Betting System
I have been struggling for over 10 years, trying to identify why are there some people who often win at horse racing while there are some others that hardly see a winning streak in their lives. The reason for this is that people who usually win are actually following an efficient horse racing system,
There is more than a computational horse racing system out there which will tremendously boost your winning streaks, but you may start with an home-made horse racing system, which might not be that accurate and efficient, but they surely work better than your bare luck.
First of all you need to do is analyze the information given to you by the very same people who profit from your bets and horse racing system, this will include the favorite horse per race and the amount of money youll get paid when winning, this is the core of a successful horse racing system. A good horse racing system rely only a little in this information, however if you pay attention to details you will see some magnificent results very soon. First of all check for those horses whose last run took place in the very same track in which the current race is going to take place, these horses already know the environment and prove to be the top contestants every time.
Also, regardless of the horse racing system you use, check out for the previous odds, if a horse lowered its ranking within the last race, then you can take a shot and enjoy the outrageous profits offered. Remember that odds are not calculated depending on the horse skills directly, they are barely a reflection on calculations made by the bookies to make a profit out from every race, no matter the result. This means that if a lot of people are betting on a given horse as they are using a similar Horse Racing Betting System, this horse will become the favorite, and it will pay less because the bookies need to pay every single winner and recoup their losses with those that placed an incorrect wager. So, follow this horse racing system and you will see some great results very promptly.