Tag Archives: favorites
Baseball Favorites To Avoid When Betting.
As a rule, the betting public loves to bet on baseball favorites because they win. Baseball favorites win at about a 58% of the time during a season. However, betting on these baseball favorites can be a loser for the baseball bettor since the moneyline odds for them are against you because you are betting with the public. Because of this, you would be better betting on the underdogs instead of favorites because of the value inherent in betting them.
Regardless, there are some baseball favorites to avoid when betting. A few of the rules when betting baseball favorites to avoid when betting are:
1. Always avoid betting on favorites that play on the road against division rivals. Bet on the home dogs since you will often than not be happy you did! Thus, avoid the road favorites in the game. A good rule to follow in addition that will make you money is to bet on a home favorite with a spread between -110 and -130 inclusive that has won 6+ games and is coming off a loss in which they scored 5 or fewer runs.
2. Generally, a baseball favorite to avoid is one that is in a slump.
3. Another common baseball favorites to avoid when betting are the ones in the American League. For some reason, the American League is stacked with many great offenses and the pitching advantage is not as strong in the American League because of the DH rule. Therefore I try to avoid American League favorites whenever I place a bet – just about daily!
4. Another baseball favorite to avoid when betting is when a team is coming into a series off a win and going against a team that just got swept. The reason for this is that momentum is a killer and generally dogs that are losing will have trouble mustering up enough of an effort to overcome the odds and win.
5. Another baseball favorite to avoid when betting is when a favorite has won three games in a row. The opposite is also true. Baseball teams that are involved in a three-game loosing streak should also be avoided when betting.
6. Another baseball favorite to avoid when betting is when the team’s pitcher got clobbered in his last outing since he may not be mentally ready to pitch again. In the same vein, you should also consider the teams relief pitcher. If a relief pitcher for a team has been overworked in his last two games you might want to avoid that baseball team.
In conclusion, most professional gamblers that bet on sports will tell you that the secret to winning is to bet the underdog and avoid baseball favorites. When you bet the moneyline on the underdog you are risking less to win more. Generally, baseball favorites lose at least sixty games a year and the worst baseball teams win close to that same number. Therefore, the more favorites you bet, the higher the percentage of wins you will need to break even. The moneyline in baseball is always set by the starting pitcher of the baseball teams involved, even if the pitcher only plays for half an inning. Therefore, the profession gambler who bets on sports will look beyond the pitching to the teams other strengths to make their decision.
Longshots Horseracing Tips.
Betting on longshots in horseracing can provide you with a profit. Most horse bettors
like to slowly grind out a profit on high percentage favorites while a few horse bettors
like the big win with a longshot. While longshots are great when you cash a ticket on them, the truth of the matter is that you cash your tickets far and few between. As the old
saying goes, “Risk equals reward,” is demonstrated over and over again when the horse
bettor plays a longshot horserace.
It all boils down to the size of your bankroll, your quest for thrills, and your financial plans. Winning longshots can be thrilling, however, as previous mentioned, you can have
long periods without cashing a ticket. That is the main reason why I play the favorites and sprinkle my bets with a longshot.
Thus, below are some tips to help you narrow down your search for high paying bets when playing the longshot in a horserace.
1. Have a plan for longshot horseracing bets.
If you are thinking about playing and hitting longshots, then you should start by studying them and making a strategic plan about longshot horseracing. Thus, I suggest a good longshot horseracing system. As I like to say, a good system is better than no system at all because as they say, “Those who fail to plan, plan to fail.” Thus, ask yourself, “do you have a longshot horseracing system?”
2. Know where to look for good longshot bets when placing a longshot horseracing bet.
I suggest that you start by studying longshots that have won recently at your favorite track?
Why did the longshot horse win? Did the longshot horse have spped, in a different class,
or in better form, etc.
That is why you should know how to handicap a horse race. Your objective in handicapping the horse race is to identify profitable situations that will most likely repeat over again. Once you have handicapped a horse race, you should make a list of trainers and jockeys who win with longshots. Believe me, longshots are usually won by the same trainers and jockeys!
The reason for this is that the longshots winning trainers and jockeys share the information with their owners and other people. Most trainers rarely win with a longshot. If they have a good horse, everybody at the racetrack knows about it.
You will discover that many of the biggest longshot horseracing winners are ridden by
some of the most famous and successful jockeys.
3. Play the favorites with a longshot added to an exotic bet.
If you do, you will win most of your bets and make a profit. If you remember the three above tips, you will be well on your way to hitting more longshots.
Just remember that the most consistent horse racing systems require the horse bettor have the basics and to be able to understand the basics.