Tag Archives: favorite
Baseball Favorites To Avoid When Betting.
As a rule, the betting public loves to bet on baseball favorites because they win. Baseball favorites win at about a 58% of the time during a season. However, betting on these baseball favorites can be a loser for the baseball bettor since the moneyline odds for them are against you because you are betting with the public. Because of this, you would be better betting on the underdogs instead of favorites because of the value inherent in betting them.
Regardless, there are some baseball favorites to avoid when betting. A few of the rules when betting baseball favorites to avoid when betting are:
1. Always avoid betting on favorites that play on the road against division rivals. Bet on the home dogs since you will often than not be happy you did! Thus, avoid the road favorites in the game. A good rule to follow in addition that will make you money is to bet on a home favorite with a spread between -110 and -130 inclusive that has won 6+ games and is coming off a loss in which they scored 5 or fewer runs.
2. Generally, a baseball favorite to avoid is one that is in a slump.
3. Another common baseball favorites to avoid when betting are the ones in the American League. For some reason, the American League is stacked with many great offenses and the pitching advantage is not as strong in the American League because of the DH rule. Therefore I try to avoid American League favorites whenever I place a bet – just about daily!
4. Another baseball favorite to avoid when betting is when a team is coming into a series off a win and going against a team that just got swept. The reason for this is that momentum is a killer and generally dogs that are losing will have trouble mustering up enough of an effort to overcome the odds and win.
5. Another baseball favorite to avoid when betting is when a favorite has won three games in a row. The opposite is also true. Baseball teams that are involved in a three-game loosing streak should also be avoided when betting.
6. Another baseball favorite to avoid when betting is when the team’s pitcher got clobbered in his last outing since he may not be mentally ready to pitch again. In the same vein, you should also consider the teams relief pitcher. If a relief pitcher for a team has been overworked in his last two games you might want to avoid that baseball team.
In conclusion, most professional gamblers that bet on sports will tell you that the secret to winning is to bet the underdog and avoid baseball favorites. When you bet the moneyline on the underdog you are risking less to win more. Generally, baseball favorites lose at least sixty games a year and the worst baseball teams win close to that same number. Therefore, the more favorites you bet, the higher the percentage of wins you will need to break even. The moneyline in baseball is always set by the starting pitcher of the baseball teams involved, even if the pitcher only plays for half an inning. Therefore, the profession gambler who bets on sports will look beyond the pitching to the teams other strengths to make their decision.
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