Tag Archives: edge

Video Poker or Slots? (Page 1 of 2)

Taking into consideration the ‘long-term’ results, the average slot machine offers higher profit than video poker. The reason is obvious: a poker is a game of skill, and market competition forces all types of casinos (online and land-based) to award winners of games of skill higher than games of luck. Most people are not skilled in playing casino games, so casino can afford high awards for those who have mastered hazard games, assuming that a profit will come from other players’ mistakes.

I can show you how to get the maximum return out of a video poker machine, but you need to remember that the maximum return may still be less than 100%. Any theoretical return of a video poker machine that’s less than 100% means the casino has an edge over you, and this takes place in slot machines, Baccarat, or Roulette. The difference is that the casino’s edge in a video poker game may be (but isn’t always) comparatively small; in the neighborhood of 1% or so. Even by making a lot of mistakes, the average player can likely achieve a long-term return of over 97% when playing a good video poker game. By ‘good’, I mean a game like full-pay Jacks or Better, which is widely available on the Internet. This version of video poker offers a return of 99.54% if the player uses the proper playing strategy. That translates into a casino edge of about 0.50% which is similar to the average Blackjack game and is undoubtedly a lower edge than the average slot machine, which is typically 3-5% at best.

However, to effectively realize the total return of a video poker game one must, at one point or another, receive a Royal Flush and its cousin, the Straight Flush. These are rare; a Royal will come only once every 40,000 hands and a Straight Flush once every 9000 hands, on average. Because we’re dealing with averages in a random game, there’s nothing to stop you from getting a Royal on your very first hand, but it’s not likely to happen. And the short-term lack of such hands alters the return you can expect when you play, say, 1000 hands of video poker, which is two or three hours of gaming. I don’t want to get too involved with mathematics here, but the Royal Flush and Straight Flush add a total of 2.53% to the 99.54% return of the full-pay Jacks or Better video poker game that I mentioned earlier. Because it’s not realistic to hit either a Royal or a Straight Flush during the course of 1000 hands of play, your return will likely be more in the area of 99.54% minus 2.53% or 97%. That translates into a 3% casino edge, which is not far removed from that of a good slot machine.

What is a ‘good’ slot machine? Well, I don’t know, because they cannot be measured like a video poker game. But, just for discussion purposes, let’s say we can identify a slot machine that has a long-term return of 97% (a 3% casino edge) and it requires 3 quarters per spin. Generally, a quarter video poker game will require 5 quarters per hand and both slots and video poker games can usually be played at a rate of about 400 spins or hands per hour. You can easily see that playing 400 spins on a slot machine at $.75 per spin means you’ll be betting $300 per hour and playing 400 hands of video poker means you’ll be betting $500 per hour. If the casino’s edge, in the short-term, is 3% on each game, your expectation is to lose $12 per hour while playing the slot machine and $15 per hour when playing the video poker game, assuming you use the proper strategy.

Can the math help you win

For the majority going through school, the math classes are a form of slow torture. All these tiresome problems to solve and never any obvious relevance to real-world situations. Except, of course, that the theory of probabilities gives you everything you need to know about how to bet effectively. Once you can work out the odds on any given event occurring, you are ahead of the game when it comes to winning. In a sense, gambling is the application of science. But this slightly breaks down because knowing the odds does not guarantee you will win. The actual result of the event is still determined by events outside your ability to control. Whether you win is a matter of luck. So we might conclude that gambling in general is a mixture of science and intangibles like intuition.

Why should this matter? Well, there’s been an interesting case rumbling through the courts in Indiana. Back in 2006, the Grand Victoria Casino and Resort banned a player for counting cards. The gambler made no secret of his good memory and skill in converting the count into accurate predictions about how to bet. In the real world, casinos run card games from a shoe, i.e. they shuffle together multiple packs of cards and stack them into a container. The dealer then pulls the cards from the stack as they are required. This is the favored system because, once the cards have been placed in the shoe, the dealer cannot cheat by sharping cards from the pack or elsewhere. The order in which the cards will be played has been physically fixed. Thus, if someone with a good memory counts the cards as they come out, he or she can work out the probability of when cards of a given value will next come out of the shoe. This technique gives the gambler the chance to beat the House edge. The combination of the optimal strategy and counting gives the player the edge. For this reason, casinos routinely throw counters out and ban them from ever playing again. Casinos prefer the House edge to remain in place. Well, that’s all going to change now because a three-judge panel of the Court of Appeals said the casino had no legal right to exclude the gambler.

This victory for the scientific gambler is a real milestone. It changes the way in which casinos in Indiana operate. Whether it will apply to other US states will depend on the way their gambling is regulated but, reading through the ruling, it looks as though it should apply in quite a few other states. It would be great if this could also apply to online backjack but the sad truth is the software does not mimic the real world. Unlike the shoe and its shuffled cards, the software uses a random number generator to decide which card comes out next. That means there’s no way to use the past cards dealt as a way of predicting future cards. The act of dealing one card is a uniquely random event, not influenced in any way by what has gone before. So scientifically-minded players will be heading to Indiana over the next few months and looking to make a killing. Those of us playing blackjack online will be relying on the optimum strategy and luck to build our winnings.