Tag Archives: chance
Texas hold em calculator (Page 1 of 2)
Building your own texas hold em calculator on your computer is very easy, all you need to know are the math equations have a copy of Microsoft Excel. If you want to go high tech, you can always look for programs that will allow you to put your Excel spreadsheets online, turning your desktop calculator into an online calculator. Ok, so the first step to building your calculator is knowing what math equations you will need to produce the right results.
The first equations will be for the number of outs you have remaining to win the hand. If you want to determine how many outs you have after seeing the flop for the turn the math equation is as follows: The number of outs you have divided by 47, which is the number of unknown cards remaining. There are 52 cards in the deck, you have 2 in your hand and 3 on the flop, thus 52 minus 5 equals 47. So lets say you are holding King Queen of spades and the flop came Jack of Spades, Ten of Spades, four of diamonds. If you pick up any ace or any nine you will have a straight, which gives you a total of eight outs for your straight. There are a total of 13 flush cards in the deck and you currently have 4 of them, leaving you with nine outs. However, being that there are 2 flush cards being accounted for if you hit a straight (the ace of spades and the nine of spades) you have to subtract those two cards from nine leaving you with seven more outs to hit a flush. So you have a total of 17 outs to win the hand by either straight or flush. Being that a king or queen may also give you the highest hand with a pair, you have 6 more additional outs, the king of diamonds, clubs, and hearts as well as the queen of those same three suits. So best case scenario you have 23 outs to win the hand. 23 / 47 will tell you your percent chance of making your hand. In this case its about 49%. If you want to avoid the decimal system multiply the number you came up with by 100.
For the river the equation will be exactly the same, only you would divide the number of outs by 46 instead of 47, because there is one less card left in the deck for the river. So your river equation would be of outs divided by 46 times 100 to avoid decimals.
If you want to know your chance of making your hand on either the turn or river the equation goes something like this: 1 minus ((47 minus the number of outs you have) divided by 47) times ((46 minus the number of outs you have) divided by 46) times 100. The reason you are using the number one at the beginning is because without it, you would have the percent chance you wont win, as opposed to the percent chance you will win.
If all these numbers are too messy and complicated you can always use the “on the fly” method to calculate. If you want to know your chance of winning on either the turn or river take the number of outs you have and multiply that number by 4. The more outs you have the more inaccurate this method becomes, but then again at its worse its only off by about 4%. For hitting your card on either the turn or river multiply the number of outs you have by 2.
What Percentage Of Races Does The Favorite Horse Win?
As a general rule, the favorite will win about 1/3 of the time, but what is amazing is how often the favorite will place, especially when less than half of the field is 5-1 or lower. In this case a favorite will place almost 100% of the time.
In order to win a horse race, you might want to predict the winner by using statistical calculations instead. In a race with 20 runners you have a 1 in 20 chance of picking the winner. However, let us say that the race has just six runners, then you have a 1 in 6 chance of winning. Thus, you can see that the fewer the runners there are, the better your chances of winning. Therefore, it is statistically speaking, a bad race to bet on. The key point: is stay away from horse races where there are lots of runners!
In a race with only six horses running, you have a 1 in 6 chance of picking a winner. However, bookmakers/tracks usually only offer poor odds if you bet place or show on such a horse. Of course, if you placed a win bet and the horse does win, then you will come away with lots of money. You really need odds of at least 4/1 to win anything if the horse that you bet on places second or third. Of course, this is providing that you placed a place or show bet. If the odds are less than 4/1, then I suggest passing such a horse race.
In my opinion, the secret of winning on the horses is to look at the statistics. I suggest that you choose horse races with nine runners and 1/4 odds on the first three, or six runners with 1/4 odds on the first two. Thus, I suggest that you limit yourself to horse races with either 6 or 9 horses running to have the best chance of winning.
Thus, the question asked is if you should bet on the horse most likely to win? Sometimes the answer to this is “no”. Often the odds on the horse most likely to win is poor. Remember, when you use this system, you are making your predictions on the odds. Thus, place your bet around 20 minutes to race time.
If the horses just below the favorite have better odds, such as 4/1, 5/1 or better; then place your bet on those horses. Remember, that your horse only has to come in the first three in a six or nine horse race for you to come away with a profit. And do not forget, the horse still has a chance of winning too. For this reason, I do not always place my money on the horse that is predicted to win. Look at the odds being offered and if they are better on the second or third horse, then go for it.
As one can see, it often is better to bet on a horse you think is going to place. The reason being that the odds are often better than the favorite winning the race.
Why does the horse predicted to place actually wins so many races? Maybe because the favorite usually only wins 1 in 3 races. In 2 out of 3 races some other horse wins.