Tag Archives: bad

Craps Bets: Learn the House Advantage for Each

July 7, 2019   Personal game   No comments

Be smart, play smart, and learn how to play craps the right way!

Knowing the house advantage for each craps bet does more for your bankroll and playing enjoyment than anything else. Based on house advantages, some bets are considered “good” (they have a relatively low house advantage) and others are considered “bad” (they have a relatively high house advantage). So, which craps bets are considered “good” and “bad” for the player? The various craps bets with their house advantages are summarized below. I consider bets with house advantages of 2% or less as “good,” those with house advantages greater than 4% as “bad,” and those with house advantages between 2% and 4% as “maybe.” I usually don’t make any of the “maybe” bets, but if you do, you won’t be giving up too much. Note: “HA” stands for “house advantage.”

Don’t Pass, Don’t Come (with single Odds), HA 0.69% = Good bet.
Pass Line, Come (with single Odds), HA 0.85% = Good bet.
Don’t Pass, Don’t Come, HA 1.40% = Good bet.
Pass Line, Come, HA 1.41% = Good bet.
Place 6 or 8, HA 1.52% = Good bet.
Buy 4 or 10 (pay vigorish on win), HA 1.64% = Good bet.
Lay 4 or 10 (pay vig on win), HA 1.64% = Good bet.
Buy 5 or 9 (pay vig on win), HA 1.96% = Good bet.
Lay 5 or 9 (pay vig on win), HA 1.96% = Good bet.
Buy 6 or 8 (pay vig on win), HA 2.22% = Maybe bet.
Lay 6 or 8 (pay vig on win), HA 2.22% = Maybe bet.
Lay 4 or 10 (pay vig up front), HA 2.44% = Maybe bet.
Field (triple for 12 or 2), HA 2.78% = Maybe bet.
Lay 5 or 9 (pay vigorish up front), HA 3.23% = Maybe bet.
Lay 6 or 8 (pay vig up front), HA 4.00% = Maybe bet.
Place 5 or 9, HA 4.00% = Maybe bet.
Buy 4 or 10 (pay vig up front), HA 4.76% = Bad bet.
Buy 5 or 9 (pay vig up front), HA 4.76% = Bad bet.
Buy 6 or 8 (pay vig up front), HA 4.76% = Bad bet.
Field (double for 2 and 12), HA 5.55% = Bad bet.
Place 4 or 10, HA 6.67% = Bad bet.
Big 6 or Big 8, HA 9.09% = Bad bet.
Hard 6 or Hard 8, HA 9.09% = Bad bet.
Any Craps, HA 11.10% = Terrible bet.
3 or 11, HA 11.10% = Terrible bet.
C & E, HA 11.10% = Terrible bet.
Hard 4 or Hard 10, HA 11.10% = Terrible bet.
Hop two ways, HA 11.10% = Terrible bet.
Horn, HA 12.50% = Really stupid bet.
Whirl (World), HA 13.33% = Really stupid bet.
2 or 12, HA 13.89% = Really stupid bet.
Hop one way, HA 13.89% = Really stupid bet.
Any 7, HA 16.67% = Total sucker bet (stop throwing your money away!).
Over 7 or Under 7, HA 16.67% = Total sucker bet (stop throwing your money away!).

It’s important to remember that whether a bet is deemed “good” or “bad” is based on many rolls over time. In the relatively short blip of time that you stand at the craps table on any particular day, you may experience a hiccup in the normal distribution where even the worst bets hit one right after the other. For example, suppose you walk up to the table and play your usual conservative game. The table is ice cold at that specific moment and 10 shooters in a row 7-out. The whole time you’re losing with your conservative “good” bets, the drunk next to you keeps hitting his “bad” $5 Field bet that only pays double for the 2 and 12. Be assured, this guy’s hot streak will soon end and then he’ll lose all his money. You can be sure that time is against him and he’ll most certainly lose. Maybe not today or tomorrow, but certainly over the next few days. Always give yourself the best chance of winning by making bets with the lowest house advantage.

Now you know! Remember, learn how to play craps the right way.

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Poker Strategies: Bad Beats (Page 1 of 2)

April 30, 2019   Game guide   No comments

Bad beats suck. Sorry, there’s no way to pretty it up. If you have been playing online poker for any amount of time, you know exactly what I mean. Whenever there is a confrontation between luck vs skill, no contest. Luck ALWAYS trumps skill. Fortunately, there are ways to lessen the influence of bad beats.

It is a fact that even 72 offsuit will beat pocket Aces a certain percentage of the time. You can be in about as dominating a position as there is, let’s say set over set going to the river. Your opponent has only one out. He’s roughly 2 to win and end up losing to someone who called your 4x preflop raise with 73 ’cause they were suited. AAARRRGGHHH!!!

And that’s exactly why I say to avoid these tournaments unless all you want to do is goof for a half hour or so. In addition to the low level of skill normally found, I’ve also found an unfortunate trend of so-called players getting into these events and intentionally playing badly for no other reason than to try to ruin the game for the beginners who are honestly trying to improve. These guys live to put on the ugliest of beats and have no intention of trying to learn to play properly or improve their game. They don’t respect the game or the other players. I don’t need the aggravation. My blood pressure is high enough, thank you.

So. While you can’t eliminate the bad beats and the resulting aggravation from your poker life, there are some things you can do to reduce their impact.

The first thing is to accept them as part of the cost of doing business as a poker player. There’s no defense against a lucky donkey. Second, if you’re playing one of these Freerolls or low-limit buy tournaments, you will need to adopt an extremely conservative style for the first stage and into the second.

The poor players will usually, but not always, have weeded themselves out after the first hour or so. After that, you can start playing poker instead of bingo.

Higher limits

It’s axiomatic that the higher you go in limit and/or buy-in, the fewer instances of wild play will be found, thereby reducing the number and frequency of bad beats. That’s not to say your AA won’t get cracked, that’s always a possibility, but it’s not going to happen as often. (If you have AA and the other guy has KK or QQ and they catch, that’s not really considered a bad beat). People have a lot more respect for a game that’s costing them $50 or $100 or more to play than they do the micro games.

Once you’ve developed your skills a bit, do yourself a favor and step up to real money as soon as you can. Moving up in limit is the best way to get out of the bingo parlor.

Online or Live?

If you have the opportunity, play live in a casino as much as possible. Even the lower limits. They have $1/$2 tables in most poker rooms as well as relatively low cost sit-n-go’s. I much prefer playing live to online because it’s easier to hone your reading skills, the games aren’t as fast so you get more felt time for your dollar, and just the fact that you’re at a live game as opposed to online will in itself cut down on the ridiculous play. One of the reasons the play is as bad as it is online is because it’s so anonymous.

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