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Betting Odds, Implied Probability And Beating The Closing Line (Page 1 of 2)

In order to profit long term from gambling, it is essential to understand the underlying mathematical concept behind the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Using a random line at Pinnacle Sports for a mythical Yankees/Royals game we see New York offered at -220 and Kansas City at +206 and from those betting lines, we can calculate the implied probability each team has of winning that particular game.

To calculate the implied probability of winning for a favorite (where the odds are negative), take the absolute value of the odds and divide that by the absolute value of the odds plus 100. For the New York Yankees, the implied probability of winning is:

220 / (220 + 100) = 220 / 320 = 0.6875 = 68.75%

To calculate the implied probability of winning for an underdog (where the odds are positive), divide 100 by the sum of the line plus 100. For the New York Yankees, the implied probability of winning is:

100 / (206 + 100) = 100 / 306 = 0.3268 = 32.68%

Looking at the percentages, the sum of them is over 100 which is never a good sign for percentages; in fact, the sum of them is 101.43%. The additional 1.43% represents the theoretical hold for the sportsbook or more commonly called the vigorish (and generally shortened to vig) which is the % amount charged by the sportsbook for its services. Assuming that the sportsbook draws in equal action on both sides it will then make 1.43% profit on the total amount of bets placed but since they are unlikely to attain equal action in most betting lines, it is only a theoretical hold.

Since the winning percentages contain an element of vigorish, we need to remove that in order to end up with the actual, rather than the implied, winning percentages and this will give us the no vig line; this is done by dividing each implied winning percentage by the sum of both winning percentages.

For the New York Yankees, the actual probability of winning is:

0.6875 / 101.43 = 0.6778 = 67.78%

For the New York Yankees, the actual probability of winning is:

0.3268 / 101.43 = 0.3222 = 32.22%

Now we can convert the two actual win probabilities into a no-vig line.

For an actual win probability equal or greater than 0.50 – or 50% in percentage terms – the formula (where FV is equal to the decimal win probability of the favored team) for the Yankees line is:

-100 / ((1 / FV) – 1) = -100 / ((1 / 0.6778) – 1) = -210.4

For an actual win probability less than 0.50 – or 50% in percentage terms – the formula (where UD is equal to the decimal win probability of the underdog) for the Royals line is:

((1 / UD) – 1) * 100 = ((1 / 0.3222) – 1) * 100 = +210.4

Since the sportsbook vig has been removed from the lines, the lines are identical in absolute terms.

This above example is where there is a clear favorite (with negative odds) and a clear underdog (with positive odds). However in the cases where there are two teams which are similarly favored by the market or, more commonly, the betting lines which use a point spread the calculation is slightly different. In this case the implied probability and actual probability can be calculated by using the New York Yankees example of calculating the implied and actual probability of winning.

The Spanish Lotto Is a Countrywide Pursuit

It is not easy to set foot within the area of Spain without being affected in one way or another by the exceptionally prosperous machine called the Spanish lottery. Often the Spaniards are, obviously known for their tradition and passion and all of that is obvious with this national pastime. So much spirit and so many resources are input via the individuals every week that this program has been incredibly successful in raising funds. Regular participants all speak of results, which keeps them coming back, and they all prepare all year long for that grandaddy competition of them all at Christmas time, El Gordo

The actual Spanish lottery is overseen by the state itself, and all around the land official outlets often called Loterias y Apuestas del Estado may be accessed. A detailed web site referred to as elgordo.com permits people to take part from the privacy of their dwellings. You do not have to be a citizen of Spain in order to participate, and the winning sum will not be subject to tax, except in cases where the funds are allocated outside of the country, in which case these are then evaluated. If however individuals play on the net, winnings are tax-free. Incredibly, the system has been in process continually since 1860, and over the internet since 96.

While a good many talk about the Spanish Lotto as – ElGodo – , that in actual fact only refers to the grand Christmas drawing, probably the most well-known part of the Spanish Lotto system. A great deal of interest is given towards the Christmas draw that approximately just about the whole population, 98% approximately, purchase lotto tickets for this competition!

On a more normal basis, the National Lottery is referred to as La Primitiva which is drawn on the Thursdays plus Saturdays of a week. This is a very typical kind of lotto, plus a favorite of Spanish Lottery syndicates. You have to pick six from 49 numbers and expect to have all six numbers to match to win the grand prize. While more people take part in the Saturday drawing, the winning prize fund associated is bigger, which is at present about 42 million Euros. In order to keep people really interested in the program, up to four out of each and every ten players are generally successful to one degree or another.

To gain access to the actual Spanish lotto outcomes is as simple as hitting an internet site .. Following the drawing, details may be seen simply by entering your own selected numbers, and it is even possible to obtain the complete set of drawings and earlier winnings via that portal.

In common with other European nations, such as britain, Spanish Lotto also includes a competition based around the results of official soccer matches. Points are allotted according to whether you choose correctly that one team ought to win or lose.

There is something for everyone while using Spanish lotto system. Whilst La Primitiva receives fairly consistent recognition, the Bonoloto can also be played 4 times each week which has a smaller sized prize fund, plus there is actually another bonus game which is enjoyed at the weekend. Also, Spaniards might also tackle Euro Millions, not to mention prepare for – the fat one – as it is termed, ElGordo, at Christmas time.