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Poker Tips for Beginners (Part 2): Blind Stealing
If it folds to you in late position and you decide to open for a raise, then a large portion of your profits will usually come from the times the blinds fold. Being able to accurately assess the conditions for stealing blinds will allow you to add a lot of money to your win-rate without much effort. The idea behind poker tips for beginners should be to make the most money with the least amount of complicated poker theory, and a basic understanding of stealing blinds achieves just that.
On the most basic level, everyone left to act will fold some percentage of the time on average. If everyone folds often enough, then you can be raising with any two cards. For example, if you open raise to three times the big blind, and everyone folds a total of 70%, then that means 70% of the time you win 1.5 big blinds, and 30% of the time you lose 3 big blinds. If we plug that into an EV equation, we get the following:
EV = 0.70(1.5) + 0.30(-3)
EV = 1.05 – 0.90
EV = 0.15
So on average, your blind steal by itself is worth 0.15 big blinds. That might not seem like much, but remember that if the blinds were $1/2, that’s $0.30 made from one action. If you had this chance every hand, you’d be making $30 per 100 hands just from blind stealing.
There are a few general factors we can think about that contribute to the EV of a blind steal. First is how the people left to act tend to play. In general, people who fold a lot are gold to our left, and people who 3-bet a lot aren’t much fun to have on our left. People who call a lot can be good or bad depending on how they play after the flop, and whether or not we have position.
Another important factor for consideration is the size of our raise. If we raise to four times the big blind, we need our opponents to fold a lot more than if we raise to three times the big blind. Against the right opponents, it can even be correct to minraise pre-flop, as long as we’re in position. Open minraising from the small blind is pretty terrible since the big blind is getting 3:1 to see a flop, meaning he will call a huge percentage of the time, and he will have position for the rest of the hand, which puts us at a huge disadvantage post-flop.
Craps Bets: Learn the House Advantage for Each
Be smart, play smart, and learn how to play craps the right way!
Knowing the house advantage for each craps bet does more for your bankroll and playing enjoyment than anything else. Based on house advantages, some bets are considered “good” (they have a relatively low house advantage) and others are considered “bad” (they have a relatively high house advantage). So, which craps bets are considered “good” and “bad” for the player? The various craps bets with their house advantages are summarized below. I consider bets with house advantages of 2% or less as “good,” those with house advantages greater than 4% as “bad,” and those with house advantages between 2% and 4% as “maybe.” I usually dont make any of the “maybe” bets, but if you do, you wont be giving up too much. Note: “HA” stands for “house advantage.”
Dont Pass, Dont Come (with single Odds), HA 0.69% = Good bet.
Pass Line, Come (with single Odds), HA 0.85% = Good bet.
Dont Pass, Dont Come, HA 1.40% = Good bet.
Pass Line, Come, HA 1.41% = Good bet.
Place 6 or 8, HA 1.52% = Good bet.
Buy 4 or 10 (pay vigorish on win), HA 1.64% = Good bet.
Lay 4 or 10 (pay vig on win), HA 1.64% = Good bet.
Buy 5 or 9 (pay vig on win), HA 1.96% = Good bet.
Lay 5 or 9 (pay vig on win), HA 1.96% = Good bet.
Buy 6 or 8 (pay vig on win), HA 2.22% = Maybe bet.
Lay 6 or 8 (pay vig on win), HA 2.22% = Maybe bet.
Lay 4 or 10 (pay vig up front), HA 2.44% = Maybe bet.
Field (triple for 12 or 2), HA 2.78% = Maybe bet.
Lay 5 or 9 (pay vigorish up front), HA 3.23% = Maybe bet.
Lay 6 or 8 (pay vig up front), HA 4.00% = Maybe bet.
Place 5 or 9, HA 4.00% = Maybe bet.
Buy 4 or 10 (pay vig up front), HA 4.76% = Bad bet.
Buy 5 or 9 (pay vig up front), HA 4.76% = Bad bet.
Buy 6 or 8 (pay vig up front), HA 4.76% = Bad bet.
Field (double for 2 and 12), HA 5.55% = Bad bet.
Place 4 or 10, HA 6.67% = Bad bet.
Big 6 or Big 8, HA 9.09% = Bad bet.
Hard 6 or Hard 8, HA 9.09% = Bad bet.
Any Craps, HA 11.10% = Terrible bet.
3 or 11, HA 11.10% = Terrible bet.
C & E, HA 11.10% = Terrible bet.
Hard 4 or Hard 10, HA 11.10% = Terrible bet.
Hop two ways, HA 11.10% = Terrible bet.
Horn, HA 12.50% = Really stupid bet.
Whirl (World), HA 13.33% = Really stupid bet.
2 or 12, HA 13.89% = Really stupid bet.
Hop one way, HA 13.89% = Really stupid bet.
Any 7, HA 16.67% = Total sucker bet (stop throwing your money away!).
Over 7 or Under 7, HA 16.67% = Total sucker bet (stop throwing your money away!).
Its important to remember that whether a bet is deemed “good” or “bad” is based on many rolls over time. In the relatively short blip of time that you stand at the craps table on any particular day, you may experience a hiccup in the normal distribution where even the worst bets hit one right after the other. For example, suppose you walk up to the table and play your usual conservative game. The table is ice cold at that specific moment and 10 shooters in a row 7-out. The whole time youre losing with your conservative “good” bets, the drunk next to you keeps hitting his “bad” $5 Field bet that only pays double for the 2 and 12. Be assured, this guys hot streak will soon end and then hell lose all his money. You can be sure that time is against him and hell most certainly lose. Maybe not today or tomorrow, but certainly over the next few days. Always give yourself the best chance of winning by making bets with the lowest house advantage.
Now you know! Remember, learn how to play craps the right way.